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Capital Controls, Capital Flow Contractions, and Macroeconomic Vulnerability

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Sebastian Edwards

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Abstract

In this paper I analyze whether restrictions to capital mobility reduce vulnerability to external shocks. More specifically, I ask if countries that restrict the free flow of international capital have a lower probability of experiencing a large contraction in net capital flows. I use three new indexes on the degree of international financial integration and a large multi-country data set for 1970-2004 to estimate a series of random-effect probit equations. I find that the marginal effect of higher capital mobility on the probability of a capital flow contraction is positive and statistically significant, but very small. Having a flexible exchange rate greatly reduces the probability of experiencing a capital flow contraction. The benefits of flexible rates increase as the degree of capital mobility increases. A higher current account deficit increases the probability of a capital flow contraction, while a higher ratio of FDI to GDP reduces that probability.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 12852.

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Date of creation: Jan 2007
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:12852

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
F3 - International Economics - - International Finance
F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Sebastian Edwards, 2004. "Thirty Years of Current Account Imbalances, Current Account Reversals and Sudden Stops," NBER Working Papers 10276, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Caballero, Ricardo J. & Krishnamurthy, Arvind, 2004. "Smoothing sudden stops," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 119(1), pages 104-127, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Guillermo A. Calvo & Alejandro Izquierdo & Luis-Fernando Mejia, 2004. "On the Empirics of Sudden Stops: The Relevance of Balance-Sheet Effects," NBER Working Papers 10520, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Eswar S. Prasad & Raghuram Rajan, 2008. "A Pragmatic Approach to Capital Account Liberalization," NBER Working Papers 14051, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Philip R. Lane and Jay C. Shambaugh, 2008. "The Long or Short of it: Determinants of Foreign Currency Exposure in External Balance Sheets Abstract: Recently, there have been numerous advances in modelling optimal international portfolio allocat," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp253, IIIS. [Downloadable!]
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