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Endogenous Financial and Trade Openness

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Author Info
Joshua Aizenman
Ilan Noy

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Abstract

This paper studies the endogenous determination of financial and trade openness. First, we outline a theoretical framework leading to two-way feedbacks between the different modes of openness; next, we identify these feedbacks empirically. We find that one standard deviation increase in commercial openness is associated with a 9.5 percent increase in de-facto financial openness (% of GDP), controlling for political economy and macroeconomic factors. Similarly, increase in de-facto financial openness has powerful effects on future trade openness. De-jure restrictions on capital mobility have only a weak impact on de-facto financial openness, while de-jure restrictions on the current account have large adverse effect on commercial openness. Having established (Granger) causality, we investigate the relative magnitudes of these directions of causality using Geweke's (1982) decomposition methodology. We find that almost all of the linear feedback between trade and financial openness can be accounted for by G-causality from financial openness to trade openness (53%) and from trade to financial openness (34%). We conclude that in an era of rapidly growing trade integration countries cannot choose financial openness independently of their degree of openness to trade. Dealing with greater exposure to financial turbulence by imposing restrictions on financial flows will likely be ineffectual.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 10496.

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Date of creation: May 2004
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:10496

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
F21 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Investment; Long-Term Capital Movements

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References listed on IDEAS
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(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. M. Ayhan Kose & Eswar Prasad & Marco Terrones, 2008. "Does Openness to International Financial Flows Raise Productivity Growth?," IMF Working Papers 08/242, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Alan M. Taylor & Janine L. F. Wilson, 2006. "International Trade and Finance under the Two Hegemons: Complementaries in the United Kingdom 1870-1913 and the United States 1920-30," NBER Working Papers 12543, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. Pasricha, Gurnain, 2009. "Bank Competition and International Financial Integration: Evidence using a new Index," MPRA Paper 16767, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Sebastian Edwards, 2005. "Capital Controls, Sudden Stops and Current Account Reversals," NBER Working Papers 11170, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  5. Joshua Aizenman, 2009. "Financial Crisis and the Paradox of Under- and Over-Regulation," NBER Working Papers 15018, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Eduardo A. Cavallo, 2005. "Trade, gravity, and sudden stops: on how commercial trade can increase the stability of capital flows," Working Paper 2005-23, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. [Downloadable!]
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  7. Alicia García-Herrero & Juan M. Ruiz, 2008. "Do trade and financial linkages foster business cycle synchronization in a small economy?," Banco de España Working Papers 0810, Banco de España. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  8. Jeffrey A. Frankel & Eduardo A. Cavallo, 2004. "Does Openness to Trade Make Countries More Vulnerable to Sudden Stops, Or Less? Using Gravity to Establish Causality," NBER Working Papers 10957, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Jeffrey A. Frankel, 2005. "Contractionary Currency Crashes in Developing Countries," NBER Working Papers 11508, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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