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Output Costs of Currency and Balance of Payments Crises in Emerging Markets

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  • Michael M Hutchison

    (Department of Economics, University of California, Santa Cruz)

  • Ilan Noy

    (Department of Economics, University of California, Santa Cruz)

Abstract

We investigate the output effects of severe currency crises in emerging markets. Using a panel data set over the 1975-97 period and covering 24 emerging-market economies, we find that currency and balance of payments crises—even after controlling for other factors—reduce output by about 5-8 percent over a two-three year period. This adverse effect is two- to four times larger than the average output loss in a developing economy. Typically, growth tends to return to trend by the third year following the crisis. The large output costs are likely related to their dependence on private capital markets and abrupt reversals in capital inflows that in turn force substantial real-side adjustment. Comparative Economic Studies (2002) 44, 27–44; doi:10.1057/ces.2002.8

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Palgrave Macmillan in its journal Comparative Economic Studies.

Volume (Year): 44 (2002)
Issue (Month): 2-3 (September)
Pages: 27-44

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Handle: RePEc:pal:compes:v:44:y:2002:i:2:p:27-44

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References

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  13. Michael M. Hutchison, 2001. "A Cure Worse Than the Disease? Currency Crises and the Output Costs of IMF-Supported Stabilization Programs," NBER Working Papers 8305, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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  16. Michael Hutchison, 2001. "A cure worse than the disease? currency crises and the output costs of IMF-supported stabilization programs," Pacific Basin Working Paper Series 2001-02, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  17. Krugman, Paul, 1979. "A Model of Balance-of-Payments Crises," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 11(3), pages 311-25, August.
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