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Public Debts and Private Assets: Explaining Capital Flight from Sub-Saharan African Countries

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  • Léonce Ndikumana

    ()
    (University of Massachusetts Amherst)

  • James K. Boyce

    ()

Abstract

We investigate the determinants of capital flight from 30 sub-Saharan African countries, including 24 countries classified as severely indebted low-income countries, for the period 1970-1996. The econometric analysis reveals that external borrowing is positively and significantly related to capital flight, suggesting that to a large extent capital flight is debt-fueled. We estimate that for every dollar of external borrowing in the region, roughly 80 cents flowed back as capital flight in the same year. Capital flight also exhibits a high degree of persistence in the sense that past capital flight is correlated with current and future capital flight. The growth rate differential between the African country and its OECD trading partners is negatively related to capital flight. We also explore the effects of several other factors - inflation, fiscal policy indicators, the interest rate differential, exchange rate appreciation, financial development, and indicators of the political environment and governance. We discuss the implications of the results for debt relief and for policies aimed at preventing capital flight and attracting private capital held abroad.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University of Massachusetts Amherst, Department of Economics in its series UMASS Amherst Economics Working Papers with number 2002-02.

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Date of creation: Aug 2002
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Handle: RePEc:ums:papers:2002-02

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Keywords: capital flight; debt; sub-Saharan Africa; debt relief; capital control;

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References

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  13. Lensink, Robert & Hermes, Niels & Murinde, Victor, 1998. "The Effect of Financial Liberalization on Capital Flight in African Economies," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 26(7), pages 1349-1368, July.
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  17. Lensink, Robert & Hermes, Niels & Murinde, Victor, 1998. "Capital flight and political risk," Research Report 98C34, University of Groningen, Research Institute SOM (Systems, Organisations and Management).
  18. G. A. Mackenzie, 1989. "Are All Summary Indicators of the Stance of Fiscal Policy Misleading?," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 36(4), pages 743-770, December.
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