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Public Debts and Private Assets: Explaining Capital Flight from Sub-Saharan African Countries

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Author Info
Léonce Ndikumana () (University of Massachusetts Amherst)
James K. Boyce ()

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Abstract

We investigate the determinants of capital flight from 30 sub-Saharan African countries, including 24 countries classified as severely indebted low-income countries, for the period 1970-1996. The econometric analysis reveals that external borrowing is positively and significantly related to capital flight, suggesting that to a large extent capital flight is debt-fueled. We estimate that for every dollar of external borrowing in the region, roughly 80 cents flowed back as capital flight in the same year. Capital flight also exhibits a high degree of persistence in the sense that past capital flight is correlated with current and future capital flight. The growth rate differential between the African country and its OECD trading partners is negatively related to capital flight. We also explore the effects of several other factors - inflation, fiscal policy indicators, the interest rate differential, exchange rate appreciation, financial development, and indicators of the political environment and governance. We discuss the implications of the results for debt relief and for policies aimed at preventing capital flight and attracting private capital held abroad.

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Paper provided by University of Massachusetts Amherst, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers with number 2002-02.

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Date of creation: Aug 2002
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Handle: RePEc:ums:papers:2002-02

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Related research
Keywords: capital flight; debt; sub-Saharan Africa; debt relief; capital control;

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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    Other versions:
  2. Lensink, Robert & Hermes, Niels & Murinde, Victor, 2000. "Capital flight and political risk," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 73-92, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. Kaufmann, Daniel & Kraay, Aart & Zoido-Lobaton, Pablo, 1999. "Governance matters," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2196, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
  4. Sebastian Edwards, 1999. "How Effective are Capital Controls?," NBER Working Papers 7413, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  5. Stanley Fischer, 1993. "The Role of Macroeconomic Factors in Growth," NBER Working Papers 4565, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  6. Henry, Lester, 1996. "Capital Flight from Beautiful Places: The Case of Three Caribbean Countries," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 10(2), pages 263-72, May.
  7. Boyce, James K., 1992. "The revolving door? External debt and capital flight: A Philippine case study," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 335-349, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Collier, Paul & Hoeffler, Anke, 2000. "Greed and grievance in civil war," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2355, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
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  10. Mikkelsen, Jan Giehm, 1991. "An Econometric Investigation of Capital Flight," Applied Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 23(1), pages 73-85, Part A, J.
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  12. Hermes, N. & Lensink, R., 2000. "Capital flight and the uncertainty of government policies," Research Report 00C30, University of Groningen, Research Institute SOM (Systems, Organisations and Management). [Downloadable!]
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  13. Simeon Inidayo Ajayi, 1997. "An Analysis of External Debt and Capital Flight in the Severely Indebted Low Income Countries in Sub-Saharan Africa," IMF Working Papers 97/68, International Monetary Fund.
  14. Alesina, Alberto & Tabellini, Guido, 1989. "External debt, capital flight and political risk," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(3-4), pages 199-220, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  15. Beck, Thorsten & Levine, Ross & Loayza, Norman, 2000. "Finance and the sources of growth," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(1-2), pages 261-300. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  16. Pastor, Manuel Jr., 1990. "Capital flight from Latin America," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 1-18, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Meenakshi Rishi & Valerie Cerra & Sweta Chaman Saxena, 2005. "Robbing the Riches: Capital Flight, Institutions, and Instability," IMF Working Papers 05/199, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  2. Christer Ljungwall & Steven Wang, 2004. "Why is capital flowing out of China?," Trade Working Papers 606, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
  3. Jomo Kwame Sundaram & Rudiger von Arnim, 2008. "Economic liberalization and constraints to development in sub-Saharan africa," Working Papers 67, United Nations, Department of Economics and Social Affairs. [Downloadable!]
  4. Ratha, Dilip & Mohapatra, Sanket & Plaza, Sonia, 2008. "Beyond aid : new sources and innovative mechanisms for financing development in Sub-Saharan Africa," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4609, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
  5. David Fielding & Anja Shortland, 2005. "How does political violence affect confidence in a local currency? Evidence from Egypt," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 17(7), pages 841-866. [Downloadable!]
  6. Fofack, Hippolyte, 2009. "Causality between external debt and capital flight in Sub-Saharan Africa," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5042, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
  7. Ndikumana, Leonce, 2002. "Additionality of Debt Relief and Debt Forgiveness, and Implications for Future Volumes of Official Assistance," Working Papers UNU-WIDER Research Paper , World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER). [Downloadable!]
  8. Alice Sindzingre, 2003. "Liberalisation, Multilateral Institutions and Public Policies : The Issue of Sovereignty In Sub-Saharan Africa," Mondes en développement, De Boeck Université, vol. 123(3), pages 23-56. [Downloadable!]
  9. Fofack, Hippolyte & Ndikumana, Leonce, 2009. "Potential gains from capital flight repatriation for Sub-Saharan African countries," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5024, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
  10. Luke Emeka Okafor & Joanna Tyrowicz, 2008. "Foreign Debt and Domestic Savings in Developing Countries," Working Papers 2008-06, Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  11. Davies, Victor A. B., 2007. "Capital flight and war," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4210, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
  12. Kisangani Emizet & Léonce Ndikumana, 2003. "The Economics of Civil War: The Case of the Democratic Republic of Congo," Working Papers wp63, Political Economy Research Institute, University of Massachusetts at Amherst. [Downloadable!]
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