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Capital Flight: China's Experience

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  • Yin-Wong Cheung

    (University of California, Santa Cruz ,Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research)

  • XingWang Qian

    (SUNY, Buffalo State College)

Abstract

We study the empirical determinants of China's capital flight. In addition to the covered interest differential, our empirical exercise includes a rather exhaustive list of macroeconomic variables and a few institutional factors. Overall, our regression exercise shows that China's capital flight is quite well explained by its own history and covered interest differentials. The other possible determinants offer relatively small additional explanatory power. It is also found that China's capital flight responds differently to the components of covered interest differentials and to the positive and negative components of these variables. The response pattern, however, depends on the choice of data frequency. The general impression is that the monthly results are more intuitive than the quarterly ones.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research in its series Working Papers with number 062010.

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Length: 35 pages
Date of creation: Mar 2010
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:hkm:wpaper:062010

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Keywords: Covered Interest Differential; Forward Premium; Expected Depreciation; Asymmetric Response; Macro Determinants;

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Cited by:
  1. Yi Wang, 2010. "Convertibility Restriction Determination in China's Foreign Exchange Market and its Impact of Forward Pricing," Discussion Papers 09-024, Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research.
  2. Herrala, Risto & Cheung, Yin-Wong, 2013. "China’s capital controls – Through the prism of covered interest differentials," BOFIT Discussion Papers 22/2013, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.

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