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China's Capital Controls - Through the Prism of Covered Interest Differentials

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  • Yin-Wong Cheung

    (City University of Hong Kong and Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research)

  • Risto Herrala

    (Bank of Finland)

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    Abstract

    We study the renminbi (RMB) covered interest differential - an indicator of the effectiveness of capital controls. It is found that the differential is not shrinking over time and, in fact, appears larger after the global financial crisis than before. That is, capital controls in China are still substantial and effective. In addition to exchange rate changes and volatilities, the RMB covered interest differential is affected by credit market tightness indicators. The marginal explanatory power of these macroeconomic factors, however, is small relative to the autoregressive component and the dummy variables that capture changes in China's policy.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research in its series Working Papers with number 142013.

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    Length: 32 pages
    Date of creation: Sep 2013
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:hkm:wpaper:142013

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    Related research

    Keywords: NDF Implied RMB Interest Rate; Capital Controls; Asymmetric Response; Macro Determinants; Credit Market Tightness;

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    1. Aliber, Robert Z, 1973. "The Interest Rate Parity Theorem: A Reinterpretation," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(6), pages 1451-59, Nov.-Dec..
    2. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Chinn, Menzie & Fujii, Eiji, 2003. "The Chinese Economies in Global Context: The Integration Process and Its Determinants," Santa Cruz Center for International Economics, Working Paper Series qt89s3z523, Center for International Economics, UC Santa Cruz.
    3. Frankel, Jeffrey & Engel, Charles M., 1984. "Do asset-demand functions optimize over the mean and variance of real returns? A six-currency test," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(3-4), pages 309-323, November.
    4. Joshua Aizenman & Rajeswari Sengupta, 2013. "Financial Trilemma in China and a Comparative Analysis with India," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 18(2), pages 123-146, 05.
    5. Yin-Wong Cheung & XingWang Qian, 2010. "Capital Flight: China's Experience," Working Papers 062010, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
    6. Dong He & Lillian Cheung & Wenlang Zhang & Tommy Wu, 2012. "How would Capital Account Liberalisation Affect China's Capital Flows and the Renminbi Real Exchange Rates?," Working Papers 092012, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
    7. Paolo Mauro & Yishay Yafeh & Nathan Sussman, 2001. "Emerging Market Spreads: Then Versus Now," OFRC Working Papers Series 2001fe03, Oxford Financial Research Centre.
    8. Jonathan David Ostry & Mahvash Saeed Qureshi & Karl Friedrich Habermeier & Dennis B. S. Reinhardt & Marcos Chamon & Atish R. Ghosh, 2010. "Capital Inflows: The Role of Controls," IMF Staff Position Notes 2010/04, International Monetary Fund.
    9. Guonan Ma & RobertN McCauley, 2008. "Efficacy Of China'S Capital Controls: Evidence From Price And Flow Data," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(1), pages 104-123, 02.
    10. Barry Eichengreen & Ashoka Mody, 1998. "What Explains Changing Spreads on Emerging-Market Debt: Fundamentals or Market Sentiment?," NBER Working Papers 6408, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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