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Does the Chinese interest rate follow the US interest rate?

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Author Info
Yin-Wong Cheung
Dickson C. Tam (Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research, Hong Kong)
Matthew S. Yiu (Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research, Hong Kong)

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Abstract

One argument for floating the Chinese renminbi (RMB) is to insulate China's monetary policy from the US effect. However, we note that both theoretical considerations and empirical results do not offer a definite answer on the link between exchange rate arrangement and policy dependence. We examine the empirical relevance of the argument by analysing the interactions between the Chinese and the US interest rates. Our empirical results, which appear robust to various assumptions of data persistence, suggest that the US effect on the Chinese interest rate is quite weak. Apparently, even with its de facto peg to the US dollar, China has alternative measures to retain its policy independence and de-link its interest rates from the US rate. In other words, the argument for a flexible RMB to insulate China's monetary policy from the US effect is not substantiated by the observed interest rate interactions. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

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File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1002/ijfe.349
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Publisher Info
Article provided by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. in its journal International Journal of Finance & Economics.

Volume (Year): 13 (2008)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
Pages: 53-67
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Handle: RePEc:ijf:ijfiec:v:13:y:2008:i:1:p:53-67

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  3. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Yuen, Jude, 2002. "Effects of U.S. Inflation on Hong Kong and Singapore," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 603-619, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Bergin, Paul R. & Jorda, Oscar, 2004. "Measuring monetary policy interdependence," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(5), pages 761-783, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Yin-Wong Cheung & Dickson C. Tam & Matthew S. Yiu, 2008. "Does the Chinese interest rate follow the US interest rate?," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 13(1), pages 53-67. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. George Furstenberg, 2008. "Assessing the Competitiveness of International Financial Services in Particular Locations: A Survey of Methods and Perspectives," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 19(4), pages 539-556, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. George M. von Furstenberg, 2007. "Aspects, Models and Measures for Assessing the Competitiveness of International Financial Services in a Particular Location," Working Papers 182007, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research. [Downloadable!]
  4. Reuven Glick & Michael Hutchison, 2008. "Navigating the trilemma: capital flows and monetary policy in China," Working Paper Series 2008-32, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. [Downloadable!]
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  5. Hutchison, Michael & Kendall, Jake & Pasricha, Gurnain Kaur & Singh , Nirvikar, 2009. "Indian Capital Control Liberalization: Evidence from NDF Markets," MPRA Paper 13630, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  6. George von Furstenberg, 2007. "Assessing the Competitiveness of International Financial Services in Particular Locations: A Survey of Methods and Perspectives," Caepr Working Papers 2007-024, Center for Applied Economics and Policy Research, Economics Department, Indiana University Bloomington. [Downloadable!]
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