Adjusting China's Exchange Rate Policies
AbstractIn this paper the author argues that China's exchange rate policy is seriously flawed given its current macroeconomic circumstances and its longer-term policy objectives. The main conclusions are the following: (i) the RMB is significantly under-valued; (ii) China has been "manipulating" its currency, contrary to the IMF rules of the game; (iii) it is in China's own interest, as well as in the interest of the international community, for China to initiate an appreciation of the RMB soon; and (iv) China should neither stand pat with its existing currency regime nor opt for a freely floating RMB and completely open capital markets. Instead, China should undertake a "two step" currency reform. Step one would involve a switch from a unitary peg to the US dollar to a basket peg, a 15-25 percent appreciation of the RMB, and wider margins around the new peg. Existing controls on China's capital outflows would be either maintained or liberalized only marginally, at least in the short run. Step two, to be implemented later when China's banking system is considerably stronger than it is today, would involve a transition to a "managed float," along with a significant liberalization of China's capital outflows.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Peterson Institute for International Economics in its series Working Paper Series with number WP04-1.
Date of creation: Jun 2004
Date of revision:
RMB; China; Exchange rate policies;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
- F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
- F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Ronald McKinnon & Gunther Schnabl, 2003.
"China: A Stabilizing or Deflationary Influence in East Asia? The Problem of Conflicted Virtue,"
03007, Stanford University, Department of Economics.
- Ronald McKinnon & Gunther Schnabl, 2003. "China: A Stabilizing or Deflationary Influence in East Asia? THe Problem of Conflict Virtue," Working Papers 232003, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
- Schnabl, Gunther, 2003. "China: a stabilizing or deflationary influence in East Asia?The problem of conflicted virtue," TÃ¼binger DiskussionsbeitrÃ¤ge 263, University of Tübingen, School of Business and Economics.
- Edwin M. Truman, 2003. "Inflation Targeting in the World Economy," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number 346.
- Michael P. Dooley & David Folkerts-Landau & Peter Garber, 2004. "The revived Bretton Woods system," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 9(4), pages 307-313.
- Marcus Noland, 1996. "US-China Economic Relations," Working Paper Series WP96-6, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
- Hinkle, Lawrence E. & Monteil, Peter J. (ed.), 1999. "Exchange Rate Misalignment: Concepts and Measurement for Developing Countries," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780195211269.
- Ralf Ruhwedel & Michael Funke, 2000.
"Export Variety and Export Performance: Empirical Evidence from East Asia,"
Quantitative Macroeconomics Working Papers
20006, Hamburg University, Department of Economics.
- Funke, Michael & Ruhwedel, Ralf, 2001. "Export variety and export performance: empirical evidence from East Asia," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(4), pages 493-505.
- Michael Dooley & David Folkerts-Landau & Peter Garber, 2005.
"An essay on the revived Bretton Woods system,"
Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Feb.
- Goldstein, Morris & Khan, Mohsin S., 1985. "Income and price effects in foreign trade," Handbook of International Economics, in: R. W. Jones & P. B. Kenen (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 20, pages 1041-1105 Elsevier.
- Muscatelli, Vito Antonio & Stevenson, Andrew A & Montagna, Catia, 1995. "Modeling Aggregate Manufactured Exports for Some Asian Newly Industrialized Economies," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 77(1), pages 147-55, February.
- Morris Goldstein & Philip Turner, 2004. "Controlling Currency Mismatches in Emerging Markets," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number 373.
- Frederic S. Mishkin, 2000.
"Inflation Targeting in Emerging Market Countries,"
NBER Working Papers
7618, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Michael Gavin & Ricardo Hausmann, 1996.
"The Roots of Banking Crises: The Macroeconomic Context,"
Research Department Publications
4026, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
- Michael Gavin & Ricardo Hausmann, 1996. "The Roots of Banking Crises: The Macroeconomic Context," IDB Publications 5819, Inter-American Development Bank.
- repec:fth:inadeb:318 is not listed on IDEAS
- Frederic S. Mishkin & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel, 2001.
"One Decade of Inflation Targeting in the World: What Do We Know and What Do We Need to Know?,"
NBER Working Papers
8397, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Frederic S. Mishkin & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel, 2001. "One decade of inflation targeting in the world : What do we know and what do we need to know?," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 101, Central Bank of Chile.
- Eswar Prasad, 2004. "China's Growth and Integration into the World Economy," IMF Occasional Papers 232, International Monetary Fund.
- Morris Goldstein, 1998. "The Asian Financial Crisis," Policy Briefs PB98-1, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
- Turner, Philip, 1988. "Savings and investment, exchange rates, and international imbalances: A comparison of the United States, Japan, and Germany," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 2(3), pages 259-285, September.
- S.M. Shafaeddin, 2002. "The Impact Of China´S Accession To Wto On The Exports Of Developing Countries," UNCTAD Discussion Papers 160, United Nations Conference on Trade and Development.
- Tao Ran & Ray Brooks, 2003. "China's Labor Market Performance and Challenges," IMF Working Papers 03/210, International Monetary Fund.
- Barry J. Eichengreen & Inci Ã–tker & A. Javier Hamann & Esteban Jadresic & R. B. Johnston & Hugh Bredenkamp & Paul R. Masson, 1998. "Exit Strategies," IMF Occasional Papers 168, International Monetary Fund.
This item has more than 25 citations. To prevent cluttering this page, these citations are listed on a separate page. reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.Access and download statisticsgeneral information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Peterson Institute webmaster).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.