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Adjusting China's Exchange Rate Policies

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Author Info
Morris Goldstein () (Institute for International Economics)
Abstract

In this paper the author argues that China's exchange rate policy is seriously flawed given its current macroeconomic circumstances and its longer-term policy objectives. The main conclusions are the following: (i) the RMB is significantly under-valued; (ii) China has been "manipulating" its currency, contrary to the IMF rules of the game; (iii) it is in China's own interest, as well as in the interest of the international community, for China to initiate an appreciation of the RMB soon; and (iv) China should neither stand pat with its existing currency regime nor opt for a freely floating RMB and completely open capital markets. Instead, China should undertake a "two step" currency reform. Step one would involve a switch from a unitary peg to the US dollar to a basket peg, a 15-25 percent appreciation of the RMB, and wider margins around the new peg. Existing controls on China's capital outflows would be either maintained or liberalized only marginally, at least in the short run. Step two, to be implemented later when China's banking system is considerably stronger than it is today, would involve a transition to a "managed float," along with a significant liberalization of China's capital outflows.

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Paper provided by Peterson Institute for International Economics in its series Peterson Institute Working Paper Series with number WP04-1.

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Date of creation: Jun 2004
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Handle: RePEc:iie:wpaper:wp04-1

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Related research
Keywords: RMB; China; Exchange rate policies;

Find related papers by JEL classification:
F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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  1. Michael P. Dooley & David Folkerts-Landau & Peter Garber, 2004. "The revived Bretton Woods system," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 9(4), pages 307-313. [Downloadable!]
  2. Frederic S. Mishkin, 2000. "Inflation Targeting in Emerging-Market Countries," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(2), pages 105-109, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. Michael Gavin & Ricardo Hausmann, 1996. "The Roots of Banking Crises: The Macroeconomic Context," RES Working Papers 4026, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
  4. Funke, Michael & Ruhwedel, Ralf, 2001. "Export variety and export performance: empirical evidence from East Asia," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(4), pages 493-505. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  5. Inci Ötker & Hugh Bredenkamp & A. Javier Hamann & Esteban Jadresic & R. B. Johnston & Paul R. Masson & Barry J. Eichengreen, 1998. "Exit Strategies: Policy Options for Countries Seeking Exchange Rate Flexibility," IMF Occasional Papers 168, International Monetary Fund.
  6. S.M. Shafaeddin, 2002. "The Impact Of China´S Accession To Wto On The Exports Of Developing Countries," UNCTAD Discussion Papers 160, United Nations Conference on Trade and Development. [Downloadable!]
  7. Staff Team, 1984. "Issues in the Assessment of the Exchange Rates of Industrial Countries," IMF Occasional Papers 29, International Monetary Fund.
  8. repec:fth:inadeb:318 is not listed on IDEAS
  9. Frederic S. Mishkin & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel, 2001. "One decade of inflation targeting in the world : What do we know and what do we need to know?," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 101, Central Bank of Chile. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  10. Ronald McKinnon & Gunther Schnabl, 2003. "China: A Stabilizing or Deflationary Influence in East Asia? The Problem of Conflicted Virtue," Working Papers 03007, Stanford University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  11. Goldstein, Morris & Khan, Mohsin S., 1985. "Income and price effects in foreign trade," Handbook of International Economics, in: R. W. Jones & P. B. Kenen (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 20, pages 1041-1105 Elsevier. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Muscatelli, Vito Antonio & Stevenson, Andrew A & Montagna, Catia, 1995. "Modeling Aggregate Manufactured Exports for Some Asian Newly Industrialized Economies," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 77(1), pages 147-55, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Michael P. Dooley & David Folkerts-Landau & Peter Garber, 2003. "An Essay on the Revived Bretton Woods System," NBER Working Papers 9971, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  14. Ray Brooks & Tao Ran, 2003. "China's Labor Market Performance and Challenges," IMF Working Papers 03/210, International Monetary Fund.
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Faruqee, Hamid & Laxton, Doug & Muir, Dirk & Pesenti, Paolo, 2006. "Would Protectionism Defuse Global Imbalances and Spur Economic Activity? A Scenario Analysis," CEPR Discussion Papers 5993, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  2. John Ryan, 2006. "Reforming China’s Exchange Rate Policy," Working Papers 2006_51, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari", Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  3. Eswar Prasad & Shang-Jin Wei, 2005. "The Chinese Approach to Capital Inflows: Patterns and Possible Explanations," NBER Working Papers 11306, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  4. Steven Vincent Dunaway & Xiangming Li, 2005. "Estimating China's "Equilibrium" Real Exchange Rate," IMF Working Papers 05/202, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  5. Steven Vincent Dunaway & Lamin Leigh & Xiangming Li, 2006. "How Robust are Estimates of Equilibrium Real Exchange Rates: The Case of China," IMF Working Papers 06/220, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  6. Jinzhao Chen, 2007. "Behavior Equilibrium Exchange Rate and Misalignment of Renminbi: A Recent Empirical Study," DEGIT Conference Papers c012_013, DEGIT, Dynamics, Economic Growth, and International Trade. [Downloadable!]
  7. Jeffrey Frankel, 2005. "On the Renminbi: The Choice between Adjustment under a Fixed Exchange Rate and Adjustment under a Flexible Rate," NBER Working Papers 11274, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  8. Frankel, Jeffrey A & Wei, Shang-Jin, 2007. "Assessing China’s Exchange Rate Regime," CEPR Discussion Papers 6264, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  9. Morris Goldstein & Nicholas Lardy, 2006. "China's Exchange Rate Policy Dilemma," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(2), pages 422-426, May. [Downloadable!]
  10. Willenbockel, Dirk, 2006. "Structural Effects of a Real Exchange Rate Revaluation in China: A CGE Assessment," MPRA Paper 920, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  11. Antoine Bouveret & Sana Mestiri & Henri Sterdyniak, 2006. "The renminbi equilibrium exchange rate: an agnostic view," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2006-13, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE). [Downloadable!]
  12. Yin-Wong Cheung & Dickson C. Tam & Matthew S. Yiu, 2008. "Does the Chinese interest rate follow the US interest rate?," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 13(1), pages 53-67. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  13. Morris Goldstein & Nicholas R. Lardy, 2005. "China's Role in the Revived Bretton Woods System: A Case of Mistaken Identity," Peterson Institute Working Paper Series WP05-2, Peterson Institute for International Economics. [Downloadable!]
  14. Oxelheim, Lars & Forssbæck , Jens, 2007. "The Transition to Marked-Based Monetary Policy: What Can China Learn from the European Experience?," Working Paper Series 696, Research Institute of Industrial Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  15. Robert Lafrance, 2008. "China's Exchange Rate Policy: A Survey of the Literature," Discussion Papers 08-5, Bank of Canada. [Downloadable!]
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