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The Trilemma in History: Tradeoffs among Exchange Rates, Monetary Policies, and Capital Mobility

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Author Info
Maurice Obstfeld (Economics Department, University of California, Berkeley & NBER & CEPR)
Jay Shambaugh (Department of Economics, Dartmouth College)
Alan Taylor (Department of Economics, University of California, Davis & NBER & CEPR)

Additional information is available for the following registered author(s):

Abstract

The exchange-rate regime is often seen as constrained by the monetary policy trilemma, which imposes a stark tradeoff among exchange stability, monetary independence, and capital market openness. Yet the trilemma has not gone without challenge. Some (e.g., Calvo and Reinhart 2001, 2002) argue that under the modern float there could be limited monetary autonomy. Others (e.g., Bordo and Flandreau 2003), that even under the classical gold standard domestic monetary autonomy was considerable. This paper studies the coherence of international interest rates over more than 130 years. The constraints implied by the trilemma are largely borne out by history.

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Paper provided by EconWPA in its series International Finance with number 0407003.

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Length: 41 pages
Date of creation: 07 Jul 2004
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Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpif:0407003

Note: 41 pages
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Web page: http://129.3.20.41

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions
F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
F42 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Policy Coordination and Transmission

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    Other versions:
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    Other versions:
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    Other versions:
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  15. repec:rus:hseeco:181565 is not listed on IDEAS
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Full references

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(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. GRENADE, Kari & MOORE, Winston, 2008. "Co-Movements Between Foreign And Domestic Interest Rates In A Fixed Exchange Rate Regime: The Case Of The Eccu And The Us," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 8(1), pages 119-130. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Anella Munro, 2004. "What drives the New Zealand dollar?," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Bulletin, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, vol. 67, june. [Downloadable!]
  3. Gerardo della Paolera & Alan M. Taylor, 2003. "Gaucho Banking Redux," NBER Working Papers 9457, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  4. Mehl, Arnaud, 2006. "The yield curve as a predictor and emerging economies," BOFIT Discussion Papers 18/2006, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. martawardaya, Berly & Salotti, Simone, 2006. "Is It Time to Get Radical? A Game Theoritic analysis of Asian Crisis and Capital Control," MPRA Paper 2073, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  6. James Laurenceson & Kam Ki Tang, . "China's capital account convertibility and financial stability," EAERG Discussion Paper Series 0505, School of Economics, University of Queensland, Australia. [Downloadable!]
  7. Christer Ljungwall & Steven Wang, 2004. "Why is capital flowing out of China?," Trade Working Papers 606, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
  8. Joshua Aizenman, 2007. "Large Hoarding of International Reserves and the Emerging Global Economic Architecture," NBER Working Papers 13277, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Maurice Obstfeld & Jay C. Shambaugh & Alan M. Taylor, 2004. "Monetary Sovereignty, Exchange Rates, and Capital Controls: The Trilemma in the Interwar period," NBER Working Papers 10393, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  10. Joshua Aizenman & Reuven Glick, 2008. "Sterilization, Monetary Policy, and Global Financial Integration," NBER Working Papers 13902, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Heather D. Gibson & Nicholas T. Tsaveas & Thomas Vlassopoulos, 2006. "Capital Flows, Capital Account Liberalisation and the Mediterranean Countries," Working Papers 33, Bank of Greece. [Downloadable!]
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  13. Bluedorn, John & Bowdler, Christopher, . "Open Economy Codependence: U.S. Monetary Policy and Interest Rate Pass-through," Discussion Paper Series In Economics And Econometrics 0615, Economics Division, School of Social Sciences, University of Southampton. [Downloadable!]
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