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China's Capital Controls - Through the Prism of Covered Interest Differentials

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  • Yin-Wong Cheung
  • Risto Herrala

Abstract

We study the renminbi (RMB) covered interest differential – an indicator of the effectiveness of capital controls. It is found that the differential is not shrinking over time and, in fact, appears larger after the global financial crisis than before. That is, capital controls in China are still substantial and effective. In addition to exchange rate changes and volatilities, the RMB covered interest differential is affected by credit market tightness indicators. The marginal explanatory power of these macroeconomic factors, however, is small relative to the autoregressive component and the dummy variables that capture changes in China’s policy.

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File URL: http://www.cesifo-group.de/portal/page/portal/DocBase_Content/WP/WP-CESifo_Working_Papers/wp-cesifo-2013/wp-cesifo-2013-08/cesifo1_wp4377.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by CESifo Group Munich in its series CESifo Working Paper Series with number 4377.

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Date of creation: 2013
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Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_4377

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Keywords: NDF implied RMB interest rate; capital controls; asymmetric response; macro determinants; credit market tightness;

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References

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  1. Yin-Wong Cheung & XingWang Qian, 2010. "Capital Flight: China's Experience," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 14(2), pages 227-247, 05.
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  3. Herrala, Risto & Cheung, Yin-Wong, 2013. "China’s capital controls – Through the prism of covered interest differentials," BOFIT Discussion Papers 22/2013, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
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  12. Dong He & Lillian Cheung & Wenlang Zhang & Tommy Wu, 2012. "How would Capital Account Liberalization Affect China's Capital Flows and the Renminbi Real Exchange Rates?," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 20(6), pages 29-54, November.
  13. Barry Eichengreen & Ashoka Mody, 1998. "What Explains Changing Spreads on Emerging-Market Debt: Fundamentals or Market Sentiment?," NBER Working Papers 6408, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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  15. Guonan Ma & RobertN McCauley, 2008. "Efficacy Of China'S Capital Controls: Evidence From Price And Flow Data," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(1), pages 104-123, 02.
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Cited by:
  1. Cheung, Yin-Wong, 2014. "The Role of Offshore Financial Centers in the Process of Renminbi Internationalization," ADBI Working Papers 472, Asian Development Bank Institute.
  2. Yin-Wong Cheung & Risto Herrala, 2013. "China's Capital Controls - Through the Prism of Covered Interest Differentials," CESifo Working Paper Series 4377, CESifo Group Munich.

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