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Emerging Market Instability: Do Sovereign Ratings Affect Country Risk and Stock Returns?

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Author Info
Graciela Kaminsky
Sergio L. Schmukler

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Abstract

Changes in sovereign debt ratings and outlooks affect financial markets in emerging economies. They affect not only the instrument being rated (bonds) but also stocks. They directly impact the markets of the countries rated and generate cross-country contagion. The effects of rating and outlook changes are stronger during crises, in nontransparent economies, and in neighboring countries. Upgrades tend to take place during market rallies, whereas downgrades occur during downturns, providing support to the idea that credit rating agencies contribute to the instability in emerging financial markets. Copyright 2002, Oxford University Press.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by Oxford University Press in its journal The World Bank Economic Review.

Volume (Year): 16 (2002)
Issue (Month): 2 (August)
Pages: 171-195
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Handle: RePEc:oup:wbecrv:v:16:y:2002:i:2:p:171-195

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Giancarol Corsetti & Paolo Pesenti & Nouriel Roubini & Cedric Tille, 1999. "Competitive devaluations: a welfare-based approach," Staff Reports 58, Federal Reserve Bank of New York. [Downloadable!]
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  2. Reinhart, Carmen & Calvo, Guillermo & Leiderman, Leonardo, 1993. "“Capital Inflows and Real Exchange Rate Appreciation in Latin America: The Role of External Factors," MPRA Paper 7125, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Richard Cantor & Frank Packer, 1996. "Determinants and impact of sovereign credit ratings," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Oct, pages 37-53. [Downloadable!]
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  4. Hand, John R M & Holthausen, Robert W & Leftwich, Richard W, 1992. " The Effect of Bond Rating Agency Announcements on Bond and Stock Prices," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(2), pages 733-52, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Anthony J. Richards & David Deddouche, 1999. "Bank Rating Changes and Bank Stock Returns - Puzzling Evidence from the Emerging Markets," IMF Working Papers 99/151, International Monetary Fund.
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  8. Helmut Reisen & Julia von Maltzan, 1999. "Boom and Bust and Sovereign Ratings," OECD Development Centre Working Papers 148, OECD, Development Centre. [Downloadable!]
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  9. Reinhart, Carmen, 2002. "Sovereign Credit Ratings Before and After Financial Crises," MPRA Paper 7410, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  10. Kaminsky, Graciela & Lyons, Richard & Schmukler, Sergio, 2000. "Managers, investors, and crises : mutual fund strategies in emerging markets," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2399, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
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  11. Michael P. Dooley, 1998. "A model of crises in emerging markets," International Finance Discussion Papers 630, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
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  12. Calvo, Guillermo A. & Mendoza, Enrique G., 2000. "Rational contagion and the globalization of securities markets," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(1), pages 79-113, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  13. Barry Eichengreen & Ashoka Mody, 1998. "What Explains Changing Spreads on Emerging-Market Debt: Fundamentals or Market Sentiment?," NBER Working Papers 6408, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  16. Guillermo Larraín & Helmut Reisen & Julia von Maltzan, 1997. "Emerging Market Risk and Sovereign Credit Ratings," OECD Development Centre Working Papers 124, OECD, Development Centre. [Downloadable!]
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Acharya, Viral V. & Shin, Hyun Song & Yorulmazer, Tanju, 2009. "A Theory of Slow-Moving Capital and Contagion," CEPR Discussion Papers 7147, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Roman Kraeussl, 2003. "Do Credit Rating Agencies Add to the Dynamics of Emerging Market Crises?," CFS Working Paper Series 2003/18, Center for Financial Studies. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Patrice Robitaille & Jennifer E. Roush, 2006. "How do FOMC actions and U.S. macroeconomic data announcements move Brazilian sovereign yield spreads and stock prices?," International Finance Discussion Papers 868, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  4. Roberto Rigobon, 2001. "The Curse of Non-Investment Grade Countries," NBER Working Papers 8636, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  5. Fatih Ozatay, 2008. "Expansionary Fiscal Consolidations: New Evidence from Turkey," Working Papers 0805, TOBB University of Economics and Technology, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  6. Anna Pavlova & Roberto Rigobon, 2005. "Wealth Transfers, Contagion, and Portfolio Constraints," NBER Working Papers 11440, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  7. Moser, Christoph, 2007. "The Impact of Political Risk on Sovereign Bond Spreads - Evidence from Latin America," Proceedings of the German Development Economics Conference, Göttingen 2007 24, Verein für Socialpolitik, Research Committee Development Economics. [Downloadable!]
  8. Fernandez, Pablo, 2004. "80 common and uncommon errors in company valuation," IESE Research Papers D/550, IESE Business School. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  9. Sergio L. Schmukler & Luis Serven, 2002. "Pricing Currency Risk: Facts and Puzzles from Currency Boards," NBER Working Papers 9047, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  10. Moser, Christoph / Dreher, Axel, 2007. "Do Markets Care about Central Bank Governor Changes? Evidence from Emerging Markets," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  11. Georgescu, George, 2007. "Current Account Deficits and Implications on Country Risk of Romania," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 4(4), pages 88-96, December. [Downloadable!]
  12. Fernandez, Pablo & Bilan, Andrada, 2007. "110 common errors in company valuations," IESE Research Papers D/714, IESE Business School. [Downloadable!]
  13. Pavlova, Anna & Rigobon, Roberto, 2008. "The Role of Portfolio Constraints in the International Propagation of Shocks," CEPR Discussion Papers 6647, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  14. Jochen R. Andritzky & Geoffrey J. Bannister & Natalia T. Tamirisa, 2005. "The Impact of Macroeconomic Announcements on Emerging Market Bonds," IMF Working Papers 05/83, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  15. Demir, Firat, 2006. "Volatility of short term capital flows, financial anarchy and private investment in emerging markets," MPRA Paper 3080, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised May 2007. [Downloadable!]
  16. Reinhart, Carmen & Reinhart, Vincent, 2001. "What hurts most?: G-3 exchange rate or interest rate volatility," MPRA Paper 14098, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  17. Galina Hale, 2005. "Courage to Capital? A Model of the Effects of Rating Agencies on Sovereign Debt Roll–over," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp062, IIIS. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  18. Steven Block & Burkhard N. Schrage & Paul M. Vaaler, 2003. "Democratization’s Risk Premium: Partisan and Opportunistic Political Business Cycle Effects on Sovereign Ratings in Developing Countries," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series 546, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan Stephen M. Ross Business School. [Downloadable!]
  19. Roman Kraeussl, 2003. "Do Changes in Sovereign Credit Ratings Contribute to Financial Contagion in Emerging Market Crises?," CFS Working Paper Series 2003/22, Center for Financial Studies. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  20. repec:bep:mactop:v:6:y:2006:i:2:p:1375-1375 is not listed on IDEAS
  21. Ratha, Dilip & De, Prabal & Mohapatra, Sanket, 2007. "Shadow sovereign ratings for unrated developing countries," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4269, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
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This page was last updated on 2009-11-19.

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