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Pricing Currency Risk: Facts and Puzzles from Currency Boards

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Sergio L. Schmukler
Luis Serven

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Abstract

Hard pegs, such as currency boards, intend to reduce or even eliminate currency risk. This paper investigates the patterns and determinants of the currency risk premium in two currency boards -- Argentina and Hong Kong. Despite the presumed rigidity of currency boards, the currency premium is almost always positive and at times very large. Its term structure is usually upward sloping, but flattens out or even becomes inverted at times of turbulence. Currency premia differ across markets. The forward discount typically exceeds the currency premium derived from interbank rates, particularly during crisis times. The large magnitude of these cross-market differences can be the consequence of unexploited arbitrage opportunities, market segmentation, or other risks embedded in typical measures of currency risk. The premium and its term structure depend on domestic and global factors, related to devaluation expectations and risk perceptions.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 9047.

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Date of creation: Jul 2002
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:9047

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F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration

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(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Neven Valev & John A. Carlson, 2004. "Beliefs about Exchange-Rate Stability: Survey Evidence from the Currency Board in Bulgaria," International Studies Program Working Paper Series, at AYSPS, GSU paper0424, International Studies Program, Andrew Young School of Policy Studies, Georgia State University. [Downloadable!]
  2. Sergio L. Schmukler & Luis Serven, 2002. "Pricing Currency Risk: Facts and Puzzles from Currency Boards," NBER Working Papers 9047, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. Neven T. Valev & John A. Carlson, 2003. "Tenuous Financial Stability," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series 540, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan Stephen M. Ross Business School. [Downloadable!]
  4. Neven Valev, 2000. "Building Monetary Credibility in a Transforming Economy," International Studies Program Working Paper Series, at AYSPS, GSU paper0212, International Studies Program, Andrew Young School of Policy Studies, Georgia State University. [Downloadable!]
  5. Neven T. Valev & John A. Carlson, 2004. "Beliefs about Exchange-Rate Stability: Survey Evidence From the Currency Board in Bulgaria," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series 2004-705, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan Stephen M. Ross Business School. [Downloadable!]
  6. Christian Broda & Eduardo Levy Yeyati, 2003. "Endogenous deposit dollarization," Staff Reports 160, Federal Reserve Bank of New York. [Downloadable!]
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