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On the Foreign Exchange Risk Premium in Sticky-Price General Equilibrium Models

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  • Charles Engel

Abstract

The properties of the foreign exchange risk premium in general equilibrium models with sticky nominal pricesare examined. In these models, risk premiums arise endogenously because monetary shocks lead to covariationof consumption and exchange rates. In some cases, the risk premiums are much larger than those produced inneoclassical general equilibrium models. Copyright Kluwer Academic Publishers 1999

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  • Charles Engel, 1999. "On the Foreign Exchange Risk Premium in Sticky-Price General Equilibrium Models," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 6(4), pages 491-505, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:itaxpf:v:6:y:1999:i:4:p:491-505
    DOI: 10.1023/A:1008745213982
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    1. Charles Engel, 1999. "Accounting for U.S. Real Exchange Rate Changes," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 107(3), pages 507-538, June.
    2. Engel, Charles, 1992. "On the foreign exchange risk premium in a general equilibrium model," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(3-4), pages 305-319, May.
    3. Obstfeld, M., 1998. "Risk and Exchange Rate," Papers 193, Princeton, Woodrow Wilson School - Public and International Affairs.
    4. Engel, Charles, 1996. "The forward discount anomaly and the risk premium: A survey of recent evidence," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 3(2), pages 123-192, June.
    5. Bekaert, Geert & Hodrick, Robert J. & Marshall, David A., 1997. "The implications of first-order risk aversion for asset market risk premiums," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 3-39, September.
    6. Flood, Robert P & Rose, Andrew K, 1996. "Fixes: Of the Forward Discount Puzzle," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 78(4), pages 748-752, November.
    7. Michael B. Devereux & Charles Engel, 1998. "Fixed vs. Floating Exchange Rates: How Price Setting Affects the Optimal Choice of Exchange-Rate Regime," NBER Working Papers 6867, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Obstfeld, Maurice & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1995. "Exchange Rate Dynamics Redux," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 103(3), pages 624-660, June.
    9. Engel, Charles M., 1984. "Testing for the absence of expected real profits from forward market speculation," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(3-4), pages 299-308, November.
    10. Stulz, Rene M, 1984. "Currency Preferences, Purchasing Power Risks, and the Determination of Exchange Rates in an Optimizing Model," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 16(3), pages 302-316, August.
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    Cited by:

    1. Maurice Obstfeld, 2001. "International Macroeconomics: Beyond the Mundell-Fleming Model," NBER Working Papers 8369, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Moore, Michael J. & Roche, Maurice J., 2010. "Solving exchange rate puzzles with neither sticky prices nor trade costs," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(6), pages 1151-1170, October.
    3. Katrin Rabitsch, 2014. "An Incomplete Markets Explanation to the UIP Puzzle," Department of Economics Working Papers wuwp171, Vienna University of Economics and Business, Department of Economics.
    4. Moore, Michael J. & Roche, Maurice J., 2002. "Less of a puzzle: a new look at the forward forex market," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(2), pages 387-411, December.
    5. Rabitsch, Katrin, 2016. "An incomplete markets explanation of the UIP puzzle," FinMaP-Working Papers 53, Collaborative EU Project FinMaP - Financial Distortions and Macroeconomic Performance: Expectations, Constraints and Interaction of Agents.
    6. Kellard, Neil & Sarantis, Nicholas, 2008. "Can exchange rate volatility explain persistence in the forward premium?," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(4), pages 714-728, September.
    7. Burton Hollifield & Armir Yaron, "undated". "The Foreign Exchange Risk Premium: Real and Nominal Factors," GSIA Working Papers 2001-E13, Carnegie Mellon University, Tepper School of Business.
    8. Rich Lyons & Martin Evans, 2004. "A New Micro Model of Exchange Rate Dynamics," Econometric Society 2004 North American Winter Meetings 622, Econometric Society.
    9. Ledenyov, Dimitri O. & Ledenyov, Viktor O., 2015. "Wave function method to forecast foreign currencies exchange rates at ultra high frequency electronic trading in foreign currencies exchange markets," MPRA Paper 67470, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Schmukler, Sergio L. & Serven, Luis, 2002. "Pricing currency risk : facts and puzzles from currency boards," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2815, The World Bank.
    11. Rabitsch, Katrin, 2014. "An Incomplete Markets Explanation to the UIP Puzzle," Department of Economics Working Paper Series 171, WU Vienna University of Economics and Business.
    12. Perron, Pierre & Wada, Tatsuma, 2009. "Let's take a break: Trends and cycles in US real GDP," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(6), pages 749-765, September.
    13. Dale Henderson & Jinill Kim, 1999. "Exact Utilities under Alternative Monetary Rules in a Simple Macro Model with Optimizing Agents," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 6(4), pages 507-535, November.
    14. Martin D. D. Evans(Georgetown University and NBER) and Richard K. Lyons(U.C. Berkeley and NBER, Haas School of Business), 2005. "A New Micro Model of Exchange Rate Dynamics (March 2004)," Working Papers gueconwpa~05-05-04, Georgetown University, Department of Economics.
    15. Duarte, Margarida & Stockman, Alan C., 2005. "Rational speculation and exchange rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(1), pages 3-29, January.
    16. Stijn van Nieuwerburgh & Michael Kumhof, 2005. "Monetary Policy in an Equilibrium Portfolio Balance Model," 2005 Meeting Papers 851, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    17. Kim, Jinill & Henderson, Dale W., 2005. "Inflation targeting and nominal-income-growth targeting: When and why are they suboptimal?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(8), pages 1463-1495, November.
    18. Mirta Noemi Sataka Bugarin & Marcelo Kfoury Muinhos & Jose Ricardo da Costa e Silva & Maria da Glória D. Silva Araújo, 2005. "The Effect of Adverse Oil Price Shocks on Monetary Policy and Output Using a Dynamic Small Open Economy General Equilibrium Model With Staggered Price for Brazil," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 348, Central Bank of Chile.
    19. Lorand Ambrus-Lakatos & Balazs Vilagi & Janos Vincze, 2004. "Deviations from interest rate parity in small open economies: A quantitative-theoretical investigation," CERS-IE WORKING PAPERS 0403, Institute of Economics, Centre for Economic and Regional Studies.
    20. Mr. Michael Kumhof, 2009. "International Currency Portfolios," IMF Working Papers 2009/048, International Monetary Fund.
    21. Kumhof, Michael, 2010. "On the theory of sterilized foreign exchange intervention," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(8), pages 1403-1420, August.
    22. Min-Yong Shin & Taehwan Yoo, 2006. "Monetary Policy Rules and the Forward Discount Bias," Korean Economic Review, Korean Economic Association, vol. 22, pages 299-317.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    foreign exchange risk premium; interest parity; sticky prices;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F3 - International Economics - - International Finance
    • F4 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance

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