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Incomplete markets, borrowing constraints, and the foreign exchange risk premium

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  • Sylvain Leduc

Abstract

A large body of literature documents that returns from currency speculation are highly volatile and possess a predictable component, which is itself highly volatile and serially correlated. Explaining the returns from currency speculation through the presence of a risk premium has proven difficult, however. In particular, models with complete markets and time-separable preferences generate risk premia that are nearly constant. This paper solves a model consisting of two monetary economies with incomplete markets, in which agents are subject to borrowing constraints. The paper investigates if such a framework is able to account for the volatility and the size of the foreign exchange risk premium. The model succeeds in increasing substantially the volatility of the risk premium to about 30 percent of that in the data. However, this more volatile risk premium does not translate into sufficiently large predictable excess returns. It thus appears unlikely that excess returns from currency speculation can be uniquely explained by a time-varying risk premium in an incomplete-markets economy with borrowing constraints.

Suggested Citation

  • Sylvain Leduc, 2000. "Incomplete markets, borrowing constraints, and the foreign exchange risk premium," Working Papers 00-3, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedpwp:00-3
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    2. Rabitsch, Katrin, 2014. "An Incomplete Markets Explanation to the UIP Puzzle," Department of Economics Working Paper Series 171, WU Vienna University of Economics and Business.
    3. Katrin Rabitsch, 2014. "An Incomplete Markets Explanation to the UIP Puzzle," Department of Economics Working Papers wuwp171, Vienna University of Economics and Business, Department of Economics.
    4. Rabitsch, Katrin, 2016. "An incomplete markets explanation of the UIP puzzle," FinMaP-Working Papers 53, Collaborative EU Project FinMaP - Financial Distortions and Macroeconomic Performance: Expectations, Constraints and Interaction of Agents.
    5. Moran, Kevin & Nono, Simplice Aimé, 2018. "Gradual learning about shocks and the forward premium puzzle," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 79-100.
    6. Katrin Rabitsch, 2016. "An Incomplete Markets Explanation of the Uncovered Interest Rate Parity Puzzle," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(2), pages 422-446, May.

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