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Solving Exchange Rate Puzzles with neither Sticky Prices nor Trade Costs

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Author Info
Maurice J. Roche () (Economics, National University of Ireland, Maynooth)
Michael J. Moore (Queen's University Belfast, Northern Ireland)

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Abstract

We present a simple framework in which both the exchange rates disconnect and forward bias puzzles are simultaneously resolved. The flexible-price two-country monetary model is extended to include a consumption externality with habit persistence. Habit persistence is modeled using Campbell Cochrane preferences with 'deep' habits. By deep habits, we mean habits defined over goods rather than countries. The model is simulated using the artificial economy methodology. It offers a neo-classical explanation of the Meese-Rogoff puzzle and mimics the failure of fundamentals to explain nominal exchange rates in a linear setting. Finally, the model naturally generates the negative slope in the standard forward market regression.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Department of Economics, Finance and Accounting, National University of Ireland - Maynooth in its series Economics, Finance and Accounting Department Working Paper Series with number n1750507.

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Length: 47 pages
Date of creation: 2007
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:may:mayecw:n1750507

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Postal: Maynooth, Co. Kildare
Phone: 353-1-7083728
Fax: 353-1-7083934
Web page: http://www.may.ie/academic/economics/
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Related research
Keywords: Exchange Rate Puzzles; Forward Foreign Exchange; Habit Persistence;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing

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Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Jingyi Liu, 2008. "Can a Lucas model with habit generate realistic conditional volatility in exchange rate returns?," ESE Discussion Papers 181, Edinburgh School of Economics, University of Edinburgh. [Downloadable!]
  2. Menzie D. Chinn & Michael J. Moore, 2008. "Private Information and a Macro Model of Exchange Rates: Evidence from a Novel Data Set," NBER Working Papers 14175, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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