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Less of a puzzle: a new look at the forward forex market

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Author Info
Maurice J. Roche () (Department of Economics, Finance and Accounting, National University of Ireland, Maynooth, Ireland)
Michael J. Moore () (School of Management and Economics, The Queen's University of Belfast, Belfast, Northern Ireland)

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Abstract

The two-country monetary model is extended to include a consumption externality with habit persistence. This is set within a limited participation framework. The model is simulated using the artificial economy methodology. The 'puzzles' in the forward market are re-examined. The model is able to account for (a) the low volatility of the forward discount (b) the higher volatility of expected forward speculative profits (c) the even higher volatility of spot rate changes (d) the persistence in the forward discount and (e) the random walk in spot exchange rates The major innovation is that it is able to replicate some of the extent of the bias of the forward discount as a predictor of realised spot rate changes.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Department of Economics, Finance and Accounting, National University of Ireland - Maynooth in its series Economics, Finance and Accounting Department Working Paper Series with number n910799.

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Length: 34 pages
Date of creation: 1999
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:may:mayecw:n910799

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Postal: Maynooth, Co. Kildare
Phone: 353-1-7083728
Fax: 353-1-7083934
Web page: http://www.may.ie/academic/economics/
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Related research
Keywords: Artificial economy; Forward foreign exchange; Limited participation; Habit persistence;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing

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  1. Lucas, Robert Jr., 1982. "Interest rates and currency prices in a two-country world," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(3), pages 335-359. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Geert Bekaert, 1996. "The Time Variation of Risk and Return in Foreign Exchange Markets: A General Equilibrium Perspective," NBER Working Papers 4818, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. Charles Engel, 1999. "On the Foreign-Exchange Risk Premium in Sticky-Price General Equilibrium Models," NBER Working Papers 7067, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Abel, A.B., 1990. "Asset Prices Under Habit Formation And Catching Up With The Joneses," Weiss Center Working Papers 1-90, Wharton School - Weiss Center for International Financial Research.
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  5. David K. Backus, 2001. "Affine Term Structure Models and the Forward Premium Anomaly," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(1), pages 279-304, 02. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Moore, Michael J, 1992. "Covered Purchasing Power Parity, Ex-Ante PPP and Risk Aversion," CEPR Discussion Papers 635, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Obstfeld, M., 1998. "Risk and Exchange Rate," Papers 193, Princeton, Woodrow Wilson School - Public and International Affairs.
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  8. Flood, Robert P & Rose, Andrew K, 1999. "Understanding Exchange Rate Volatility without the Contrivance of Macroeconomics," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 109(459), pages F660-72, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Weil, Philippe, 1989. "The equity premium puzzle and the risk-free rate puzzle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 401-421, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Charles Engel, 1996. "The Forward Discount Anomaly and the Risk Premium: A Survey of Recent Evidence," NBER Working Papers 5312, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Moore, Michael J. & Roche, Maurice J., 2001. "Liquidity in the forward exchange market," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 8(2), pages 157-170, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. Fama, Eugene F., 1984. "Forward and spot exchange rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 319-338, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Lars Ljungqvist & Harald Uhlig, 2000. "Tax Policy and Aggregate Demand Management under Catching Up with the Joneses," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(3), pages 356-366, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Engel, Charles, 1992. "On the foreign exchange risk premium in a general equilibrium model," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(3-4), pages 305-319, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  15. Cox, John C & Ingersoll, Jonathan E, Jr & Ross, Stephen A, 1985. "A Theory of the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(2), pages 385-407, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  16. Fukuda, Shin-ichi & Hoshi, Takeo & Ito, Takatoshi & Rose, Andrew, 2006. "International Finance," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 455-458, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  17. David K. Backus & Silverio Foresi & Chris I. Telmer, 1995. "Interpreting the Forward Premium Anomaly," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 28(s1), pages 108-19, November.
    Other versions:
Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Peter G. Szilagyi & Jonathan A. Batten, 2006. "Arbitrage, Covered Interest Parity and Long-Term Dependence between the US Dollar and the Yen," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp128, IIIS. [Downloadable!]
  2. Lars Ljungqvist & Harald Uhlig, 2009. "Optimal Endowment Destruction under Campbell-Cochrane Habit Formation," NBER Working Papers 14772, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. M.B. Devereux & Ch. Engel, 2003. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through, Exchange Rate Volatility, and ExchangeRate Disconnect," DNB Staff Reports (discontinued) 77, Netherlands Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Pierre Perron† & Tatsuma Wada, 2005. "Let’s Take a Break: Trends and Cycles in US Real GDP?," Boston University - Department of Economics - Working Papers Series WP2005-031, Boston University - Department of Economics, revised Oct 2005. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Aaron Tornell, 2003. "Exchange Rate Puzzles and Distorted Beleifs (June 2003), with Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas," UCLA Economics Online Papers 265, UCLA Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  6. Maurice J. Roche & Michael J. Moore, 2007. "Solving Exchange Rate Puzzles with neither Sticky Prices nor Trade Costs," Economics, Finance and Accounting Department Working Paper Series n1750507, Department of Economics, Finance and Accounting, National University of Ireland - Maynooth. [Downloadable!]
  7. Christophe Chamley, 2006. "Complementarities in information acquisition with short-term trades," Boston University - Department of Economics - Working Papers Series WP2006-042, Boston University - Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  8. Jingyi Liu, 2008. "Can a Lucas model with habit generate realistic conditional volatility in exchange rate returns?," ESE Discussion Papers 181, Edinburgh School of Economics, University of Edinburgh. [Downloadable!]
  9. Menzie D. Chinn & Michael J. Moore, 2008. "Private Information and a Macro Model of Exchange Rates: Evidence from a Novel Data Set," NBER Working Papers 14175, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Dios Palomares, Rafaela & Martínez Paz, José Miguel & Martínezcarrasco Pleite, Federico, 2006. "Including environmental variables in the effi ciency analysis: A three-step method/El análisis de efi ciencia con variables de entorno: un método de programas con tres etapas," Estudios de Economía Aplicada, Estudios de Economía Aplicada, vol. 24, pages 477-497, Abril. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. John A Carlson & Christian M. Dahl & Carol L. Osler, 2008. "Short-run Exchange-Rate Dynamics: Theory and Evidence," CREATES Research Papers 2008-01, School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus. [Downloadable!]
  12. Roche, M.J. & Moore. M.J., 2002. "Volatile and persistent real exchange rates without the contrivance of sticky prices," Economics, Finance and Accounting Department Working Paper Series n1160402, Department of Economics, Finance and Accounting, National University of Ireland - Maynooth. [Downloadable!]
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