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Fixes: Of the Forward Discount Puzzle

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Author Info
Flood, Robert P
Rose, Andrew K

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Abstract

Regressions of ex-post changes in floating exchange rates on appropriate interest differentials typically imply that the high interest rate currency tends to appreciate - the `forward discount puzzle'. Using data from the European Monetary System we find that a large part of the forward discount puzzle vanishes for regimes of fixed exchange rates. That is, deviations from uncovered interest parity appear to vary in a way that is dependent upon the exchange rate regime. By using the many EMS realignments we are also able to quantify the `peso problem'.

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Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 1090.

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Date of creation: Dec 1994
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:1090

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Related research
Keywords: EMS Exchange Rates Floating Interest Parity Peso Problem Uncovered

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

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  1. Froot, Kenneth A & Thaler, Richard H, 1990. "Foreign Exchange," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 4(3), pages 179-92, Summer. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. McCallum, Bennett T., 1994. "A reconsideration of the uncovered interest parity relationship," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 105-132, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Menzie Chinn & Jeffery Frankel, 1995. "More survey data on exchange rate expectations: More currencies, more horizons, more tests," International Finance 9508003, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  2. James R. Lothian & Liuren Wu, 2003. "Uncovered Interest Rate Parity Over the Past Two Centuries," International Finance 0311009, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  3. Kashif Mansori, 2003. "Following in their Footsteps: Comparing Interest Parity Conditions in Central European Economies to the Euro Countries," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo GmbH. [Downloadable!]
  4. Jan J J Groen & Ravi Balakrishnan, . "Asset price based estimates of sterling exchange rate risk premia," Bank of England working papers 250, Bank of England. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Alex Luiz Ferreira, 2004. "Leaning Against the Parity," Studies in Economics 0413, Department of Economics, University of Kent. [Downloadable!]
  6. Christopher J. Neely, 2005. "The case for foreign exchange intervention: the government as an active reserve manager," Working Papers 2004-031, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
  7. Arusha Cooray, 2003. "Financial integration: some evidence from Australia," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 10(15), pages 959-966, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Kleopatra Nikolaou & Lucio Sarno, 2005. "New Evidence on the Forward Unbiasedness Hypothesis in the Foreign Exchange Market," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2005 77, Money Macro and Finance Research Group. [Downloadable!]
  9. Vipul Bhatt & Arvind Virmani, 2005. "Global integration of India's Money Market : Interest rate parity in India," Indian Council for Research on International Economic Relations, New Delhi Working Papers 164, Indian Council for Research on International Economic Relations, New Delhi, India. [Downloadable!]
  10. David Backus & Silverio Foresi & Chris Telmer, 1996. "Affine Models of Currency Pricing," NBER Working Papers 5623, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  11. Christopher J. Neely & Lucio Sarno, 2002. "How well do monetary fundamentals forecast exchange rates?," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Sep, pages 51-74. [Downloadable!]
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  12. Robert P. Flood & Andrew K. Rose, 2002. "Uncovered Interest Parity in Crisis," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan Journals, vol. 49(2), pages 6. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Guy Meredith & Menzie D. Chinn, 1998. "Long-Horizon Uncovered Interest Rate Parity," NBER Working Papers 6797, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Bennett T. McCallum, 2000. "Theoretical Analysis Regarding a Zero Lower Bound on Nominal Interest Rates," NBER Working Papers 7677, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  15. Charles Engel, 1999. "On the Foreign-Exchange Risk Premium in Sticky-Price General Equilibrium Models," NBER Working Papers 7067, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  16. Metodij Hadzi-Vaskov & Clemens Kool, 2006. "The Importance of Interest Rate Volatility in Empirical Tests of Uncovered Interest Parity," Working Papers 06-16, Utrecht School of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  17. Arnaud Mehl & Lorenzo Cappiello, 2007. "Uncovered interest oparity at distant horizons - evidence on emerging economies & nonlinearities," Working Paper Series 801, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  18. Olivier Jeanne & Andrew K Rose, 1999. "Noise trading and exchange rate regimes," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series G99/2, Reserve Bank of New Zealand. [Downloadable!]
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  19. Yue Ma & Guy Meredith, 2002. "The Forward Premium Puzzle Revisited," IMF Working Papers 02/28, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  20. William P. Osterberg, 1997. "Does intervention explain the forward discount puzzle?," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, issue Q IV, pages 24-31. [Downloadable!]
  21. Tigran Poghosyan & Evzen Kocenda, 2006. "Foreign Exchange Risk Premium Determinants: Case of Armenia," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series wp811, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan Stephen M. Ross Business School. [Downloadable!]
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  22. Leon, Hyginus & Sarno, Lucio & Valente, Giorgio, 2006. "Nonlinearity in Deviations from Uncovered Interest Parity: An Explanation of the Forward Bias Puzzle," CEPR Discussion Papers 5527, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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