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Let’s Take a Break: Trends and Cycles in US Real GDP?

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Author Info
Pierre Perron† () (Department of Economics, Boston University)
Tatsuma Wada (Department of Economics, Boston University)

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Abstract

Recent work on trend-cycle decompositions for US real GDP yields the following puzzling features: methods based on Unobserved Components models, the Beveridge- Nelson decomposition, the Hodrick-Prescott filter and others yield very different cycles which bear little resemblance to the NBER chronology, ascribes much movements to the trend leaving little to the cycle, and some imply a negative correlation between the noise to the cycle and the trend. We argue that these features are artifacts created by the neglect of a change in the slope of the trend function in real GDP in 1973. Once this is properly accounted for, all methods yield the same cycle with a trend that is non-stochastic except for a few periods around 1973. This cycle is more important in magnitude than previously reported, it accords well with the NBER chronology and implies no correlation between the trend and cycle, since the former is non-stochastic. Our results are corroborated using an alternative trend-cycle decomposition based on a generalized Unobserved Components models with errors having a mixture of Normals distribution for both the slope of the trend function and the cyclical component. It can account endogenously for infrequent changes such as level shifts and change in slope, as well as different variances for expansions and recessions. It yields a decomposition that accords very well with common notions of the business cycle.

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Paper provided by Boston University - Department of Economics in its series Boston University - Department of Economics - Working Papers Series with number WP2005-031.

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Length: 45 pages
Date of creation: Jan 2005
Date of revision: Oct 2005
Handle: RePEc:bos:wpaper:wp2005-031

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Keywords: Trend-Cycle Decomposition Structural Change Non Gaussian Filtering Unobserved Components Model Beveridge-Nelson Decomposition.

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models
E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Hanno Lustig & Adrien Verdelhan, 2008. "Note on The Cross-Section of Foreign Currency Risk Premia and Consumption Growth Risk," NBER Working Papers 13812, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Philippe Bacchetta & Eric van Wincoop, 2006. "Incomplete information processing: a solution to the forward discount puzzle," Working Paper Series 2006-35, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
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