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On the Foreign-Exchange Risk Premium in Sticky-Price General Equilibrium Models

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Charles Engel

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Abstract

This paper investigates the behavior of the foreign exchange risk premium in two recent two-country intertemporal-optimizing general equilibrium models with sticky nominal prices: Obstfeld-Rogoff (1998) and Devereux-Engel (1998). The foreign exchange risk premium in any general equilibrium model arises from the correlation of the exchange rate with consumption. In flexible price models, that requires correlation of monetary and output supply shocks. In sticky-price models, the correlation arises endogenously because monetary shocks cause output and consumption to change. The size of the risk premium depends on how prices are set (in producers' currencies versus consumers' currencies), and on the form of the money demand function. In some cases, the risk premium generated by the model is quite large.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 7067.

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Date of creation: Apr 1999
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Publication status: published as International Tax and Public Finance, Vol. 6 (1999): 491-505. International Finance and Financial Crises: Essays in Honor of Robert P. Flood, Isard, Peter, Assaf Razin and Andrew Rose, eds., IMF and Kluwer.
Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:7067

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F3 - International Economics - - International Finance
F4 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance

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  1. Obstfeld, Maurice & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1995. "Exchange Rate Dynamics Redux," CEPR Discussion Papers 1131, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Flood, Robert P & Rose, Andrew K, 1996. "Fixes: Of the Forward Discount Puzzle," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 78(4), pages 748-52, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Michael B. Devereux & Charles Engel, 1998. "Fixed vs. Floating Exchange Rates: How Price Setting Affects the Optimal Choice of Exchange-Rate Regime," NBER Working Papers 6867, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Engel, Charles, 1992. "On the foreign exchange risk premium in a general equilibrium model," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(3-4), pages 305-319, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Obstfeld, M., 1998. "Risk and Exchange Rate," Papers 193, Princeton, Woodrow Wilson School - Public and International Affairs.
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  6. Charles Engel, 1996. "The Forward Discount Anomaly and the Risk Premium: A Survey of Recent Evidence," NBER Working Papers 5312, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Stulz, Rene M, 1984. "Currency Preferences, Purchasing Power Risks, and the Determination of Exchange Rates in an Optimizing Model," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 16(3), pages 302-16, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Engel, C., 1996. "Accounting for U.S. Real Exchange Rate Changes," Working Papers 96-02, University of Washington, Department of Economics.
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  9. Bekaert, Geert & Hodrick, Robert J. & Marshall, David A., 1997. "The implications of first-order risk aversion for asset market risk premiums," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 3-39, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Engel, Charles M., 1984. "Testing for the absence of expected real profits from forward market speculation," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(3-4), pages 299-308, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Michael Kumhof & Stijn van Nieuwerburgh, 2007. "Monetary Policy in an Equilibrium Portfolio Balance Model," IMF Working Papers 07/72, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
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  2. Martin D.D. Evans & Richard K. Lyons, 2004. "A New Micro Model of Exchange Rate Dynamics," NBER Working Papers 10379, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Mirta Noemi Sataka Bugarin & Marcelo Kfoury Muinhos & Jose Ricardo da Costa e Silva & Maria da Glória D. Silva Araújo, 2005. "The Effect of Adverse Oil Price Shocks on Monetary Policy and Output Using a Dynamic Small Open Economy General Equilibrium Model With Staggered Price for Brazil," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 348, Central Bank of Chile. [Downloadable!]
  4. Lorand Ambrus-Lakatos & Balazs Vilagi & Janos Vincze, 2004. "Deviations from interest rate parity in small open economies: A quantitative-theoretical investigation," IEHAS Discussion Papers 0403, Institute of Economics, Hungarian Academy of Sciences. [Downloadable!]
  5. Pierre Perron† & Tatsuma Wada, 2005. "Let’s Take a Break: Trends and Cycles in US Real GDP?," Boston University - Department of Economics - Working Papers Series WP2005-031, Boston University - Department of Economics, revised Oct 2005. [Downloadable!]
  6. Sergio L. Schmukler & Luis Serven, 2002. "Pricing Currency Risk: Facts and Puzzles from Currency Boards," NBER Working Papers 9047, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Dale W. Henderson & Jinill Kim, 1999. "Exact utilities under alternative monetary rules in a simple macro model with optimizing agents," International Finance Discussion Papers 635, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
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  8. Maurice J. Roche & Michael J. Moore, 1999. "Less of a puzzle: a new look at the forward forex market," Economics, Finance and Accounting Department Working Paper Series n910799, Department of Economics, Finance and Accounting, National University of Ireland - Maynooth. [Downloadable!]
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