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International Capital Mobility in Emerging Markets: New Evidence from Daily Data

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Author Info
Kumhof, Michael

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Abstract

This paper analyzes daily covered interbank interest differentials for three emerging markets before and after the 1997/98 financial crises, and compares them with those of four developed economies. It examines descriptive statistics of covered differentials and the long-run equilibrium (cointegrating) relationship between their interest rate and forward discount components. Mean differentials and their volatility were moderate before crises, but increased dramatically during crises. The main reasons are temporarily effective capital controls, large bank default risk premia, and capital market imperfections. The evidence for a cointegrating vector consistent with covered interest parity is strong, implying that, despite large short-term deviations, covered interest parity does hold as an equilibrium relationship. Copyright 2001 by Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

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Article provided by Blackwell Publishing in its journal Review of International Economics.

Volume (Year): 9 (2001)
Issue (Month): 4 (November)
Pages: 626-40
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Handle: RePEc:bla:reviec:v:9:y:2001:i:4:p:626-40

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  1. Yin-Wong Cheung & Menzie Chinn & Eiji Fujii, 2003. "China, Hong Kong, and Taiwan: A Quantitative Assessment of Real and Financial Integration," Santa Cruz Center for International Economics, Working Paper Series 1012, Center for International Economics, UC Santa Cruz. [Downloadable!]
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  2. Juan Sole, 2004. "Interest Rate Defenses of Currency Pegs," IMF Working Papers 04/85, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  3. Sergio L. Schmukler & Luis Serven, 2002. "Pricing Currency Risk: Facts and Puzzles from Currency Boards," NBER Working Papers 9047, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
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