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The Curse of Non-Investment Grade Countries

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Author Info
Roberto Rigobon

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Abstract

Mexico was upgraded from non-investment to investment grade in March of 2000. This paper examines the impact of this event on the properties of the transmission of shocks between Argentina and Mexico. The paper shows that there is a statistically significant change in the propagation of shocks the day the upgrade was announced. Furthermore, it is found that the parameters that shifted are those explaining the diffusion of shocks through the means, while the transmission through the variances remained stable. Moreover, the change in the estimated coefficients can explain more than a third in the unconditional comovement that these assets experienced before the upgrade. From the methodological point of view, the paper offers an identification procedure based on conditional heteroskedasticity (ARCH) that solves the problem of estimation in a linear simultaneous equations model that can be used in other Macro and Finance applications.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 8636.

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Date of creation: Dec 2001
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:8636

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
F3 - International Economics - - International Finance
C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions

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References listed on IDEAS
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  1. Bollerslev, Tim & Engle, Robert F & Wooldridge, Jeffrey M, 1988. "A Capital Asset Pricing Model with Time-Varying Covariances," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(1), pages 116-31, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Engle, Robert F. & Ng, Victor K. & Rothschild, Michael, 1990. "Asset pricing with a factor-arch covariance structure : Empirical estimates for treasury bills," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1-2), pages 213-237. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Kristin J. Forbes & Roberto Rigobon, 2002. "No Contagion, Only Interdependence: Measuring Stock Market Comovements," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(5), pages 2223-2261, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Roberto Rigobon, 2001. "Contagion: How to Measure It?," NBER Working Papers 8118, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Roberto Rigobon, 1999. "On the Measurement of the International Propagation of Shocks," NBER Working Papers 7354, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Gourieroux, C & Monfort, A & Renault, E, 1993. "Indirect Inference," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(S), pages S85-118, Suppl. De. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Roberto Rigobon, 2003. "Identification Through Heteroskedasticity," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 85(4), pages 777-792, 09. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Bollerslev, Tim, 1990. "Modelling the Coherence in Short-run Nominal Exchange Rates: A Multivariate Generalized ARCH Model," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 72(3), pages 498-505, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. repec:cup:etheor:v:12:y:1996:i:4:p:657-81 is not listed on IDEAS
  10. Sentana, E. & Fiorentini, G., 1997. "Identification, Estimation and Testing of Conditionally Heteroskedastic Factor Model," Papers 9709, Centro de Estudios Monetarios Y Financieros-.
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  11. Graciela Kaminsky & Sergio L. Schmukler, 2002. "Emerging Market Instability: Do Sovereign Ratings Affect Country Risk and Stock Returns?," World Bank Economic Review, Oxford University Press, vol. 16(2), pages 171-195, August.
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  12. Tauchen, George E. & Gallant, A. Ronald, 1995. "Which Moments to Match," Working Papers 95-20, Duke University, Department of Economics.
  13. Fortin, Pierre & Keil, Manfred & Symons, James, 2001. "The Sources of Unemployment in Canada, 1967-91: Evidence from a Panel of Regions and Demographic Groups," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 53(1), pages 67-93, January.
  14. Gallant, A. Ronald & Tauchen, George, 1996. "Which Moments to Match?," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 12(04), pages 657-681, October. [Downloadable!]
  15. Diebold, Francis X & Nerlove, Marc, 1989. "The Dynamics of Exchange Rate Volatility: A Multivariate Latent Factor Arch Model," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 4(1), pages 1-21, Jan.-Mar.. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  16. Robert F. Engle & Kenneth F. Kroner previously & Yoshihisa Baba & Dennis F. Kraft, 1993. "Multivariate Simultaneous Generalized ARCH," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series 89-57r, Department of Economics, UC San Diego. [Downloadable!]
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