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Contagious speculative attacks

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  • Stefan Gerlach
  • Frank Smets

    (European Central Bank (ECB))

Abstract

During the European exchange market turmoil in 1992-93 it was evident that speculative attacks tended to spread across currencies. Using a twocountry version of the model developed by Flood and Garber (1984) we show how a speculative attack against one currency may accelerate the "warranted" collapse of a second parity. More importantly, even if the parity of the second currency is viable in the absence of a collapse of the first one, it might be subjected to a speculative attack if the reserves available to defend the parity are "small".

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Bank for International Settlements in its series BIS Working Papers with number 22.

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Length: 26 pages
Date of creation: Sep 1994
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:bis:biswps:22

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  1. Barry Eichengreen & Charles Wyplosz, 1993. "The Unstable EMS," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 24(1), pages 51-144.
  2. Smaghi, L.B. & Area, C., 1993. "Rating the EC as an Optimal Currency Area," Papers 187, Banca Italia - Servizio di Studi.
  3. Goldfeld, Stephen M. & Sichel, Daniel E., 1990. "The demand for money," Handbook of Monetary Economics, in: B. M. Friedman & F. H. Hahn (ed.), Handbook of Monetary Economics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 8, pages 299-356 Elsevier.
  4. Flood, Robert P. & Garber, Peter M., 1984. "Collapsing exchange-rate regimes : Some linear examples," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(1-2), pages 1-13, August.
  5. Maurice Obstfeld, 1994. "The Logic of Currency Crises," NBER Working Papers 4640, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Maurice Obstfeld, 1986. "Rational and Self-Fulfilling Balance-of-Payments Crises," NBER Working Papers 1486, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Pierre-Richard Agénor & Jagdeep S. Bhandari & Robert P. Flood, 1992. "Speculative Attacks and Models of Balance of Payments Crises," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 39(2), pages 357-394, June.
  8. Obstfeld, Maurice & Stockman, Alan C., 1985. "Exchange-rate dynamics," Handbook of International Economics, in: R. W. Jones & P. B. Kenen (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 18, pages 917-977 Elsevier.
  9. Willman, Alpo, 1988. "The collapse of the fixed exchange rate regime with sticky wages and imperfect substitutability between domestic and foreign bonds," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 32(9), pages 1817-1838, November.
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