Economic Fundamentals and Self-Fulfilling Crises: Some Evidence from Mexico
AbstractThis paper considers a model of debt stabilitisation under a fixed exchange rate in which a currency crisis can develop as the result of self-fulfilling speculation, following a bifurcation in the behaviour of economic fundamentals. Based on this theoretical framework and by exploiting the test developed by Jeanne (1997), this paper provides evidence that self-fulfilling speculation was at work in the 1994 Mexican crisis. In terms of fundamentals, we show that the critical variables in generating the Mexican crisis were the fast rise in the US$-denominated public debt (tesebonos), the appreciated real exchange rate and the small rises in unemployment and primary deficit.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Economics, The Univeristy of Manchester in its series Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series with number 23.
Length: 33 pages
Date of creation: 2002
Date of revision:
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currency crisis; speculation; multiple equilibria; 1994 Mexican crisis;
Other versions of this item:
- G J Bratsiotis & W Robinson, 2002. "Economic Fundamentals and Self-Fulfilling Crises: Some Evidence from Mexico," The School of Economics Discussion Paper Series 0214, Economics, The University of Manchester.
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