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A Fiscal Theory of Currency Crises

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Author Info
Daniel, Betty C

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Abstract

An exchange rate crisis is caused when the fiscal authority lets the present value of primary surpluses, inclusive of seigniorage, deviate from the value of government debt at the pegged exchange rate. In the absence of long-term government bonds, the exchange rate collapse must be instantaneous. With long-term government bonds, the collapse can be delayed at the discretion of the monetary authority. Fiscal policy is responsible for the inevitability of a crisis, while monetary policy determines its characteristics, that is, the timing of the crisis and the magnitude of exchange rate depreciation.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association in its journal International Economic Review.

Volume (Year): 42 (2001)
Issue (Month): 4 (November)
Pages: 969-88
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Handle: RePEc:ier:iecrev:v:42:y:2001:i:4:p:969-88

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. de Kock, Gabriel & Grilli, Vittorio, 1993. "Fiscal Policies and the Choice of Exchange Rate Regime," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 103(417), pages 347-58, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. John H. Cochrane, 1998. "Long-term Debt and Optimal Policy in the Fiscal Theory of the Price Level," NBER Working Papers 6771, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. John H. Cochrane, 1998. "A Frictionless View of U.S. Inflation," NBER Working Papers 6646, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  4. Sims, Christopher A, 1994. "A Simple Model for Study of the Determination of the Price Level and the Interaction of Monetary and Fiscal Policy," Economic Theory, Springer, vol. 4(3), pages 381-99.
  5. Betty C. Daniel, 1997. "Fiscal Policy and the Predictability of Exchange Rate Collapse," IMF Working Papers 97/133, International Monetary Fund.
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  7. Leeper, Eric M., 1991. "Equilibria under 'active' and 'passive' monetary and fiscal policies," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 129-147, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Flood, Robert P. & Garber, Peter M., 1984. "Collapsing exchange-rate regimes : Some linear examples," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(1-2), pages 1-13, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Corsetti, G. & Pesenti, P. & Roubini, N., 1998. "What Caused the Asian Currency and Financial Crisis?," Papers 343, Banca Italia - Servizio di Studi.
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  10. Jeffrey Sachs & Aaron Tornell & Andres Velasco, 1996. "The Mexican Peso Crisis: Sudden Death or Death Foretold?," NBER Working Papers 5563, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Garber, Peter M. & Svensson, Lars E.O., 1995. "The operation and collapse of fixed exchange rate regimes," Handbook of International Economics, in: G. M. Grossman & K. Rogoff (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 36, pages 1865-1911 Elsevier. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. Canzoneri, Matthew B & Cumby, Robert & Diba, Behzad, 1998. "Fiscal Discipline and Exchange Rate Regimes," CEPR Discussion Papers 1899, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Pierre-Richard Agenor & Jagdeep S. Bhandari & Robert P. Flood, 1991. "Speculative Attacks and Models of Balance-of-Payments Crises," NBER Working Papers 3919, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  14. Maurice Obstfeld, 1994. "The Logic of Currency Crises," NBER Working Papers 4640, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Michael Woodford, 1995. "Price Level Determinacy Without Control of a Monetary Aggregate," NBER Working Papers 5204, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  16. Burnside, C. & Eichenbaum, M. & Rebelo, S., 1998. "Prospective Deficits and the Asian Currency Crisis," RCER Working Papers 458, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
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  17. Auernheimer, Leonardo, 1987. "On the outcome of inconsistent programs under exchange rate and monetary rules : Allowing the market to compensate for government mistakes," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 279-305, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  18. Flood, Robert P. & Garber, Peter M. & Kramer, Charles, 1996. "Collapsing exchange rate regimes: Another linear example," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(3-4), pages 223-234, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  19. Buiter, Willem H, 1989. "A Viable Gold Standard Requires Flexible Monetary and Fiscal Policy," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 56(1), pages 101-17, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  20. Krugman, Paul, 1979. "A Model of Balance-of-Payments Crises," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 11(3), pages 311-25, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  22. Woodford, Michael, 1994. "Monetary Policy and Price Level Determinacy in a Cash-in-Advance Economy," Economic Theory, Springer, vol. 4(3), pages 345-80.
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  27. Barry Eichengreen & Charles Wyplosz, 1993. "The Unstable EMS," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 24(1993-1), pages 51-144. [Downloadable!]
  28. Maurice Obstfeld, 1986. "Speculative Attack and the External Constraint in a Maximizing Model of the Balance of Payments," NBER Working Papers 1437, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  29. Flood, Robert P. & Marion, Nancy P., 2000. "Self-fulfilling risk predictions:: an application to speculative attacks," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 245-268, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  30. Drazen, Allan, 1985. "Tight money and inflation: Further Results," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 113-120, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Craig Burnside & Martin Eichenbaum & Sergio Rebelo, 2003. "Government Finance in the Wake of Currency Crises," NBER Working Papers 9786, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  2. Michael Woodford, 2001. "Fiscal Requirements for Price Stability," NBER Working Papers 8072, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. Flood, Robert P & Jeanne, Olivier, 2000. "An Interest Rate Defence of a Fixed Exchange Rate?," CEPR Discussion Papers 2507, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  4. Järvinen, Marketta, 2002. "Exchange rate regimes and nominal convergence in the CEECs," BOFIT Discussion Papers 4/2002, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition. [Downloadable!]
  5. Cruz Rodriguez, Alexis, 2009. "Choosing and assessing exchange rate regimes: A survey of the literature," MPRA Paper 16314, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  6. Aloy, Marcel & Moreno-Dodson, Blanca & Nancy, Gilles, 2008. "Intertemporal adjustment and fiscal policy under a fixed exchange rate regime," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4607, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
  7. Craig Burnside, 2004. "The Research Agenda: Craig Burnside on the Causes and Consequences of Twin Banking-Currency Crises," EconomicDynamics Newsletter, Review of Economic Dynamics, vol. 5(2), April. [Downloadable!]
  8. Barbara Annicchiarico, 2006. "Fiscal Policy and Exchange Rates," Journal of Economics, Springer, vol. 89(2), pages 165-185, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  9. David B. Gordon & Eric M. Leeper, 2002. "The Price Level, the Quantity Theory of Money, and the Fiscal Theory of the Price Level," NBER Working Papers 9084, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  10. Michael Kumhof & Ricardo Nunes & Irina Yakadina, 2008. "Simple monetary rules under fiscal dominance," International Finance Discussion Papers 937, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  11. Andre, Nyembwe, 2003. "Monetary Policy, Credibility and Asymmetries : Small African Countries and the EMU Advent," Discussion Papers (IRES - Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales) 2003011, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES), revised 06 Aug 2002. [Downloadable!]
  12. Bartosz Mackowiak, 2006. "Macroeconomic Regime Switches and Speculative Attacks," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2006-025, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  13. Barbara Annicchiarico, 2002. "Fiscal Policy And Exchange Rates," Departmental Working Papers 174, Tor Vergata University, CEIS. [Downloadable!]
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