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Collapsing Exchange Rate Regimes: Another Linear Example

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Author Info
Robert P. Flood
Peter M. Garber
Charles Kramer

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Abstract

In the literature on speculative attacks on a fixed exchange rate, it is usually assumed that the monetary authority responsible for fixing the exchange rate reacts passively to the monetary disruption caused by the attack. This assumption is grossly at odds with actual experience where monetary-base implications of the attacks are usually sterilized. Such sterilization renders the standard monetary-approach attack model unable to provide intellectual guidance to recent attack episodes. In this paper we describe the problems with the standard model and develop a version of the portfolio-balance exchange rate model that allows the study of episodes with sterilization. Sterilized attacks may be regarded as a laboratory test of the monetary versus portfolio-balance exchange rate models. The monetary model fails the test. These issues are motivated by reference to the December 1994 collapse of the Mexican peso.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 5318.

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Date of creation: Oct 1995
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:5318

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
F30 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - General
F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions

References listed on IDEAS
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  1. Flood, Robert P. & Garber, Peter M., 1984. "Collapsing exchange-rate regimes : Some linear examples," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(1-2), pages 1-13, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Blanco, Herminio & Garber, Peter M, 1986. "Recurrent Devaluation and Speculative Attacks on the Mexican Peso," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 94(1), pages 148-66, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Obstfeld, Maurice, 1986. "Rational and Self-fulfilling Balance-of-Payments Crises," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 76(1), pages 72-81, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Salant, Stephen W & Henderson, Dale W, 1978. "Market Anticipations of Government Policies and the Price of Gold," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 86(4), pages 627-48, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Krugman, Paul, 1979. "A Model of Balance-of-Payments Crises," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 11(3), pages 311-25, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Ongan, Tevfik Hakan & Karabulut, Gökhan, 2004. "A Simple Model Of Currency Crises And Budget Deficits: The Case Of Turkey," MPRA Paper 1470, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  2. Michael Berlemann & Kalin Hristov & Nikolay Nenovsky, 2002. "Lending of Last Resort, Moral Hazard and Twin Crises: Lessons from the Bulgarian Financial Crisis 1996/1997," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series 464, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan Stephen M. Ross Business School. [Downloadable!]
  3. G J Bratsiotis & W Robinson, 2002. "Economic Fundamentals and Self-Fulfilling Crises: Some Evidence from Mexico," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 23, Economics, The Univeristy of Manchester. [Downloadable!]
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  4. Landon, Stuart & Smith, Constance, 1999. "The risk premium, exchange rate expectations, and the forward exchange rate: Estimates for the Yen-Dollar rate," MPRA Paper 9775, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
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  5. Joseph A. Whitt, Jr., 1996. "The Mexican peso crisis," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, issue Jan, pages 1-20. [Downloadable!]
  6. Amartya Lahiri & Carlos A. Vegh, 2000. "Delaying the Inevitable: Optimal Interest Rate Policy and BOP Crises," NBER Working Papers 7734, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Leonidas E. De la Rosa, 1999. "Ataques Especulativos:Un Enfoque De Incertidumbre E Información," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 002033, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA. [Downloadable!]
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  8. Betty Daniel, 2000. "A Fiscal Theory of Currency Crises," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 0535, Econometric Society. [Downloadable!]
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  9. Maria Aguirre & Reza Saidi, 2000. "Volatility behavior of exchange rate future contracts," Atlantic Economic Journal, International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 28(4), pages 396-411, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Felipe Meza & Erwan Quintin, 2005. "Financial crises and total factor productivity," Center for Latin America Working Papers 0105, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. [Downloadable!]
  11. Arias, Guillaume & Erlandsson, Ulf, 2004. "Regime switching as an alternative early warning system of currency crises - an application to South-East Asia," Working Papers 2004:11, Lund University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  12. Panagiotis Liargovas & Dimitrios Dapontas, 2007. "Currency crises in transition economies: some further evidence," Working Papers 0011, University of Peloponnese, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  13. Dilip K. Das, 2001. "Stimulants to capital inflows into emerging markets and the recent role of speculators," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 13(1), pages 25-44. [Downloadable!]
  14. Elias Brandt & Scott Dressler & Erwan Quintin, 2004. "The real impact of financial crises," Economic and Financial Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, pages 1-15. [Downloadable!]
  15. Shankar, Rashmi, 2002. "Distinguishing between observationally equivalent theories of crises," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2926, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
  16. Nuria Malet & Clara Garcia, 2005. "Exchange Market Pressure, Monetary Policy, and Economic Growth: Argentina in 1993 - 2004," Working Papers wp99, Political Economy Research Institute, University of Massachusetts at Amherst. [Downloadable!]
  17. Islam, Roumeen, 2000. "Should capital flows be regulated? - a look at the issues and policies," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2293, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
  18. Pastine, Ivan, 2001. "Speculation and the Decision to Abandon a Fixed Exchange Rate Regime," CEPR Discussion Papers 2893, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  19. Shankar, Rashmi, 2005. "Insurance and liquidity : panel evidence," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3648, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
  20. Celine Rochon, 2006. "Devaluation without common knowledge," OFRC Working Papers Series 2006fe03, Oxford Financial Research Centre. [Downloadable!]
  21. Feridun, M., 2004. "Brazilian Real Crisis Revisited: A Linear Probability Model to Identify Leading Indicators," International Journal of Applied Econometrics and Quantitative Studies, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 1(1), pages 81-96. [Downloadable!]
  22. Hakan Yilmazkuday, 2008. "Twin Crises in Turkey: A Comparison of Currency Crisis Models," European Journal of Comparative Economics, Cattaneo University (LIUC), vol. 5(1), pages 107-124, June. [Downloadable!]
  23. Sergio Rebelo & Carlos A. Vegh, 2006. "When Is It Optimal to Abandon a Fixed Exchange Rate?," NBER Working Papers 12793, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  24. Marco Del Negro & Francesc Obiols-Homs, 2000. "Has monetary policy been so bad that it is better to get rid of it? the case of Mexico," Working Paper 2000-26, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. [Downloadable!]
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  25. Carlos A. Ibarra, 1999. "Disinflation and the December 1994 Devaluation in Mexico," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 13(1), pages 55-69, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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