Understanding Devaluations in Latin America: A 'Bad Fundamentals' Approach
AbstractThis paper is an empirical study of the determinants of Latin American devaluations during the period between 1957 and 1988. The estimation of probabilities of devaluation is done using logit analysis. The empirical results show that reserves, the real exchange rate, the share of domestic credit to the public sector and the current account deficit have a significant effect on the likelihood of a devaluation. In summary, this paper confirms the view that devaluations in Latin America are a consequence of the state of fundamentals in these economies.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Center for International and Development Economics Research, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley in its series Center for International and Development Economics Research, Working Paper Series with number qt1h89j1pp.
Date of creation: 01 May 1997
Date of revision:
Contact details of provider:
Postal: F502 Haas, Berkeley CA 94720-1922
Phone: (510) 642-1922
Fax: (510) 642-5018
Web page: http://www.escholarship.org/repec/iber_cider/
More information through EDIRC
devaluations; fixed exchange rates; economics;
Other versions of this item:
- Maria Soledad Martinez Peria, 1998. "Understanding Devaluations in Latin America: A "Bad Fundamentals" Approach," International Finance 9805004, EconWPA.
- F30 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - General
- F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Klein, Michael W. & Marion, Nancy P., 1997.
"Explaining the duration of exchange-rate pegs,"
Journal of Development Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 54(2), pages 387-404, December.
- Linda S. Goldberg, 1990.
"Predicting Exchange Rate Crises: Mexico Revisited,"
NBER Working Papers
3320, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Goldberg, Linda S., 1994. "Predicting exchange rate crises : Mexico revisited," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(3-4), pages 413-430, May.
- Sebastian Edwards & Julio Santaella, 1993.
"Devaluation Controversies in the Developing Countries: Lessons from the Bretton Woods Era,"
in: A Retrospective on the Bretton Woods System: Lessons for International Monetary Reform, pages 405-460
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Sebastian Edwards & Julio A. Santaella, 1992. "Devaluation Controversies in the Developing Countries: Lessons From the Bretton Woods Era," NBER Working Papers 4047, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Barry Eichengreen & Andrew K. Rose & Charles Wyplosz, 1995.
"Speculative attacks on pegged exchange rates: an empirical exploration with special reference to the European Monetary System,"
Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory
95-04, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
- Barry Eichengreen, Andrew K. Rose, and Charles Wyplosz., 1995. "Speculative Attacks on Pegged Exchange Rates: An Empirical Exploration with Special Reference to the European Monetary System," Center for International and Development Economics Research (CIDER) Working Papers C95-046, University of California at Berkeley.
- Eichengreen, Barry & Rose, Andrew K & Wyplosz, Charles, 1994. "Speculative Attacks on Pegged Exchange Rates: An Empirical Exploration with Special Reference to the European Monetary System," CEPR Discussion Papers 1060, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Barry Eichengreen & Andrew K. Rose & Charles Wyplosz, 1994. "Speculative Attacks on Pegged Exchange Rates: An Empirical Exploration with Special Reference to the European Monetary System," NBER Working Papers 4898, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Robert P. Flood & Peter M. Garber, 1981.
"Gold monetization and gold discipline,"
International Finance Discussion Papers
190, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Krugman, Paul, 1979. "A Model of Balance-of-Payments Crises," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 11(3), pages 311-25, August.
- Willman, Alpo, 1988. "The collapse of the fixed exchange rate regime with sticky wages and imperfect substitutability between domestic and foreign bonds," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 32(9), pages 1817-1838, November.
- Flood, Robert P. & Garber, Peter M., 1984. "Collapsing exchange-rate regimes : Some linear examples," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(1-2), pages 1-13, August.
- Maurice Obstfeld, 1984.
"Rational and Self-Fulfilling Balance-of-Payments Crises,"
NBER Working Papers
1486, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Obstfeld, Maurice, 1986. "Rational and Self-fulfilling Balance-of-Payments Crises," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 76(1), pages 72-81, March.
- Peria, Maria Soledad Martinez, 1999. "A regime - switching approach to studying speculative attacks : focus on European Monetary System crises," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2132, The World Bank.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Lisa Schiff).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.