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Sources of Currency Crises: An Empirical Analysis

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    Paper provided by Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank) in its series Working Papers with number 25.

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    Date of creation: 15 Apr 1998
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    Handle: RePEc:onb:oenbwp:25

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    1. Maurice Obstfeld, 1984. "Rational and Self-Fulfilling Balance-of-Payments Crises," NBER Working Papers 1486, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Perron, P., 1986. "Trends and Random Walks in Macroeconomic Time Series: Further Evidence From a New Approach," Cahiers de recherche 8650, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
    3. Andrew K. Rose & Lars E.O. Svensson, 1993. "European Exchange Rate Credibility Before the Fall," NBER Working Papers 4495, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Gali, Jordi, 1992. "How Well Does the IS-LM Model Fit Postwar U.S. Data," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 107(2), pages 709-38, May.
    5. Artis, Michael J & Zhang, W, 1997. "International Business Cycles and the ERM: Is There a European Business Cycle?," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 2(1), pages 1-16, January.
    6. Robert P. Flood & Peter M. Garber, 1980. "Gold Monetization and Gold Discipline," NBER Working Papers 0544, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. F. Gulcin Ozkan & Alan Sutherland, . "A Model of the ERM Crisis," EPRU Working Paper Series 93-09, Economic Policy Research Unit (EPRU), University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
    8. Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-72, June.
    9. Gerlach, Stefan & Smets, Frank, 1995. "Contagious speculative attacks," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 11(1), pages 45-63, March.
    10. Bensaid, Bernard & Jeanne, Olivier, 1997. "The instability of fixed exchange rate systems when raising the nominal interest rate is costly," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 41(8), pages 1461-1478, August.
    11. Claessens, Stijn, 1991. "Balance of payments crises in an optimal portfolio model," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 81-101, January.
    12. Maurice Obstfeld, 1994. "The Logic of Currency Crises," NBER Working Papers 4640, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Maurice Obstfeld, 1985. "Floating Exchange Rates: Experience and Prospects," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 16(2), pages 369-464.
    14. Maurice Obstfeld, 1983. "Balance-of-Payments Crises and Devaluation," NBER Working Papers 1103, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. Whitney K. Newey & Kenneth D. West, 1986. "A Simple, Positive Semi-Definite, Heteroskedasticity and AutocorrelationConsistent Covariance Matrix," NBER Technical Working Papers 0055, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    16. Buiter, W.H. & Corsetti, G.M. & Pesenti, P.A., 1998. "Interpreting the ERM Crisis: Country-Specific and Systemic Issues," Princeton Studies in International Economics 84, International Economics Section, Departement of Economics Princeton University,.
    17. Olivier Jeanne and Paul Masson., 1997. "Was the French Franc Crisis a Sunspot Equilibrium?," Center for International and Development Economics Research (CIDER) Working Papers C97-095, University of California at Berkeley.
    18. Krugman, Paul, 1979. "A Model of Balance-of-Payments Crises," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 11(3), pages 311-25, August.
    19. Dellas, H. & Stockman, A.C., 1988. "Self-Fullfilling Expectations, Speculative Attacks And Capital Controls," RCER Working Papers 138, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
    20. Isard,Peter, 1995. "Exchange Rate Economics," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521460477, October.
    21. Olivier Jean Blanchard & Danny Quah, 1988. "The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbance," Working papers 497, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
    22. Barry Eichengreen, Andrew K. Rose, and Charles Wyplosz., 1995. "Speculative Attacks on Pegged Exchange Rates: An Empirical Exploration with Special Reference to the European Monetary System," Center for International and Development Economics Research (CIDER) Working Papers C95-046, University of California at Berkeley.
    23. Obstfeld, Maurice, 1996. "Models of currency crises with self-fulfilling features," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 40(3-5), pages 1037-1047, April.
    24. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1987. "Interpreting Evidence on Money-Income Causality," NBER Working Papers 2228, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    25. Maurice Obstfeld, 1995. "Intenational Currency Experience: New Lessons and Lessons Relearned," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 26(1, 25th A), pages 119-220.
    26. Mussa, Michael, 1982. "A Model of Exchange Rate Dynamics," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 90(1), pages 74-104, February.
    27. Takatoshi Ito, 1997. "Purchasing Power Parity," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number ito_97-2, October.
    28. Matthew D. Shapiro & Mark W. Watson, 1988. "Sources of Business Cycle Fluctuations," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 870, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    29. Mussa, Michael, 1979. "Empirical regularities in the behavior of exchange rates and theories of the foreign exchange market," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 11(1), pages 9-57, January.
    30. Phillips, P C B, 1987. "Time Series Regression with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 277-301, March.
    31. Canzoneri, Matthew B & Vallés Liberal, Javier & Viñals, José, 1996. "Do Exchange Rates Move to Address International Macroeconomic Imbalances?," CEPR Discussion Papers 1498, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    32. Flood, Robert P. & Garber, Peter M., 1984. "Collapsing exchange-rate regimes : Some linear examples," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(1-2), pages 1-13, August.
    33. Robert P. Flood, 1981. "Explanations of Exchange Rate Volatility and Other Empirical Regularities in Some Popular Models of the Foreign Exchange Market," NBER Working Papers 0625, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    34. W.H. Buiter & G Corsetti & P Pesenti, 1995. "A Center-Periphery Model of Monetary Coordination and Exchange Rate Crises," CEP Discussion Papers dp0246, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    35. Engel, Charles, 1996. "The forward discount anomaly and the risk premium: A survey of recent evidence," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 3(2), pages 123-192, June.
    36. Willman, Alpo, 1988. "The collapse of the fixed exchange rate regime with sticky wages and imperfect substitutability between domestic and foreign bonds," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 32(9), pages 1817-1838, November.
    37. Isard,Peter, 1995. "Exchange Rate Economics," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521466004, October.
    38. Gros, Daniel, 1992. "Capital controls and foreign exchange market crises in the EMS," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 36(8), pages 1533-1544, December.
    39. Wyplosz, Charles, 1986. "Capital controls and balance of payments crises," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 167-179, June.
    40. Dornbusch, Rudiger, 1976. "Expectations and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 84(6), pages 1161-76, December.
    41. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
    42. Phillips, P.C.B., 1986. "Testing for a Unit Root in Time Series Regression," Cahiers de recherche 8633, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
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    Cited by:
    1. Burkart, O. & Coudert, V., 2000. "Leading Indicators of Currency Crises in Emerging Economies," Working papers 74, Banque de France.
    2. Helene Schuberth, 1998. "Room for manoeuvre of economic policy in EU countries are there costs of joining EMU?," Working Papers 35, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).

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