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Leading Indicators of Currency Crises in Emerging Economies Author info | Abstract | Publisher info | Download info | Related research | Statistics Burkart, O.
Coudert, V.
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This study identifies common features of currency crises in 15 emerging countries over the period 1980-1998. By analyzing such features, we build an early-warning system aimed at predicting looming crises in probabilistic terms.
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Paper provided by Banque de France in its series Documents de Travail with number
74.
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Length: 41 pages
Date of creation: 2000Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:bfr:banfra:74Contact details of provider: Postal: Banque de France 31 Rue Croix des Petits Champs LABOLOG - 49-1404 75049 PARIS Web page: http://www.banque-france.fr/ More information through EDIRC
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its listing, contact: (Thierry Demoulin).
Keywords: Currency crises ; Vulnerability indicators ; Early-warning systems ; Crisis prediction ; Asian crisis ; Balance of payments crises ; Discriminant analysis. ; Find related papers by JEL classification: F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange F47 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Forecasting and Simulation
References listed on IDEAS Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile , click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
Amemiya, Takeshi, 1981.
"Qualitative Response Models: A Survey ,"
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Graciela L. Kaminsky & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1996.
"The twin crises: the causes of banking and balance-of-payments problems ,"
International Finance Discussion Papers
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Other versions:
Reinhart, Carmen & Kaminsky, Graciela, 1999.
"The twin crises: The causes of banking and balance of payments problems ,"
MPRA Paper
14081, University Library of Munich, Germany.
[Downloadable!] Graciela L. Kaminsky & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1999.
"The Twin Crises: The Causes of Banking and Balance-of-Payments Problems ,"
American Economic Review ,
American Economic Association, vol. 89(3), pages 473-500, June.
[Downloadable!] (restricted) Kaminsky, Graciela & Lizondo, Saul & Reinhart, Carmen M., 1997.
"Leading indicators of currency crises ,"
Policy Research Working Paper Series
1852, The World Bank.
[Downloadable!]
Other versions:
Graciela Laura Kaminsky, 1997.
"Leading Indicators of Currency Crises ,"
IMF Working Papers
97/79, International Monetary Fund.
Reinhart, Carmen & Kaminsky, Graciela & Lizondo, Saul, 1998.
"Leading Indicators of Currency Crises ,"
MPRA Paper
6981, University Library of Munich, Germany.
[Downloadable!] Graciela Kaminsky & Saul Lizondo & Carmen Reinhart, 1998.
"Leading Indicators of Currency Crisis ,"
IMF Staff Papers ,
Palgrave Macmillan Journals, vol. 45(1), pages 1.
[Downloadable!] (restricted) Virginie Coudert, 1999.
"Comment definir un taux de change d'equilibre pour les pays emergents ? ,"
Economie Internationale ,
CEPII research center, issue 1Q, pages 45-66.
[Downloadable!]
Menzie D. Chinn, 1998.
"Before the Fall: Were East Asian Currencies Overvalued? ,"
NBER Working Papers
6491, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
[Downloadable!] (restricted)
Other versions: Frankel, Jeffrey A. & Rose, Andrew K., 1996.
"Currency crashes in emerging markets: An empirical treatment ,"
Journal of International Economics ,
Elsevier, vol. 41(3-4), pages 351-366, November.
[Downloadable!] (restricted)
Other versions: Bardos, Mireille, 1998.
"Detecting the risk of company failure at the Banque de France ,"
Journal of Banking & Finance ,
Elsevier, vol. 22(10-11), pages 1405-1419, October.
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Steven B. Kamin, 1999.
"The current international financial crisis: how much is new? ,"
International Finance Discussion Papers
636, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
[Downloadable!]
Kruger, Mark & Osakwe, Patrick N. & Page, Jennifer, 1998.
"Fundamentals, Contagion and Currency Crises: An Empirical Analysis ,"
Working Papers
98-10, Bank of Canada.
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Marvin Barth & Trevor Dinmore, 1999.
"Trade prices and volumes in East Asia through the crisis ,"
International Finance Discussion Papers
643, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
[Downloadable!]
Krugman, Paul, 1979.
"A Model of Balance-of-Payments Crises ,"
Journal of Money, Credit and Banking ,
Blackwell Publishing, vol. 11(3), pages 311-25, August.
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Kamin, Steven B., 1999.
"The current international financial crisis:: how much is new? ,"
Journal of International Money and Finance ,
Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 501-514, August.
[Downloadable!] (restricted)
Axel A. Weber, 1998.
"Sources of currency crises: an empirical analysis ,"
Working Papers
25, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).
[Downloadable!]
Robert Flood & Nancy Marion, 1998.
"Perspectives on the Recent Currency Crisis Literature ,"
NBER Working Papers
6380, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
[Downloadable!] (restricted)
Other versions:
Robert P. Flood & Nancy Peregrim Marion, 1998.
"Perspectives on the Recent Currency Crisis Literature ,"
IMF Working Papers
98/130, International Monetary Fund.
Flood, Robert & Marion, Nancy, 1999.
"Perspectives on the Recent Currency Crisis Literature ,"
International Journal of Finance & Economics ,
John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 4(1), pages 1-26, January.
[Downloadable!] (restricted) Jeanne, Olivier, 1999.
"Currency Crises: A Perspective on Recent Theoretical Developments ,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
2170, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
[Downloadable!] (restricted)
Gerlach, Stefan & Smets, Frank, 1995.
"Contagious speculative attacks ,"
European Journal of Political Economy ,
Elsevier, vol. 11(1), pages 45-63, March.
[Downloadable!] (restricted)
Other versions:
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references Cited by : (explanations , Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile , click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)
Eduardo Borensztein & Catherine A. Pattillo & Andrew Berg, 2004.
"Assessing Early Warning Systems: How Have They Worked in Practice? ,"
IMF Working Papers
04/52, International Monetary Fund.
[Downloadable!]
Other versions: J. Pérez, 2005.
"Empirical identification of currency crises: differences and similarities between indicators ,"
Applied Financial Economics Letters ,
Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 1(1), pages 41-46, January.
[Downloadable!] (restricted)
Rebecca N. Coke & Andrew Berg, 2004.
"Autocorrelation-Corrected Standard Errors in Panel Probits: An Application to Currency Crisis Prediction ,"
IMF Working Papers
04/39, International Monetary Fund.
[Downloadable!]
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