Measuring potential vulnerabilities in emerging market economies
AbstractThis paper describes some experiments with the construction of relatively simple indices which summarise in a systematic and objective way information about emerging economies currently under pressure in financial markets and those vulnerable to such pressure in the future. A survey of the literature suggests financial crises are typically preceded by overvalued exchange rates, inadequate international reserves, recessions and excessive credit growth. These indicators and others, such as short-term external debt, which appear more important in recent crises are included in the summary indices of vulnerability. The vulnerability indices are shown to have modest predictive power for the pressure index but are far from conclusive in themselves.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Bank for International Settlements in its series BIS Working Papers with number 91.
Length: 46 pages
Date of creation: Oct 2000
Date of revision:
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Morris Goldstein & Carmen M. Reinhart, 2000. "Assessing Financial Vulnerability: An Early Warning System for Emerging Markets," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number 100.
- Kaminsky, Graciela & Lizondo, Saul & Reinhart, Carmen M., 1997.
"Leading indicators of currency crises,"
Policy Research Working Paper Series
1852, The World Bank.
- Burkart, O. & Coudert, V., 2000. "Leading Indicators of Currency Crises in Emerging Economies," Working papers 74, Banque de France.
- Graciela L. Kaminsky & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1996.
"The twin crises: the causes of banking and balance-of-payments problems,"
International Finance Discussion Papers
544, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Carmen M. Reinhart & Graciela L. Kaminsky, 1999. "The Twin Crises: The Causes of Banking and Balance-of-Payments Problems," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(3), pages 473-500, June.
- Reinhart, Carmen & Kaminsky, Graciela, 1999. "The twin crises: The causes of banking and balance of payments problems," MPRA Paper 14081, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Christian B. Mulder & Matthieu BussiÃ¨re, 1999. "External Vulnerability in Emerging Market Economies - How High Liquidity Can Offset Weak Fundamentals and the Effects of Contagion," IMF Working Papers 99/88, International Monetary Fund.
- Kruger, Mark & Osakwe, Patrick N. & Page, Jennifer, 1998. "Fundamentals, Contagion and Currency Crises: An Empirical Analysis," Working Papers 98-10, Bank of Canada.
- Prati, Alessandro & Sbracia, Massimo, 2010.
"Uncertainty and currency crises: Evidence from survey data,"
Journal of Monetary Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 57(6), pages 668-681, September.
- Prati, Alessandro & Sbracia, Massimo, 2010. "Uncertainty and Currency Crises: Evidence from Survey Data," MPRA Paper 21209, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- TCHANA TCHANA, Fulbert, 2008.
"The Empirics of Banking Regulation,"
9299, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Frankel, Jeffrey & Saravelos, George, 2012.
"Can leading indicators assess country vulnerability? Evidence from the 2008–09 global financial crisis,"
Journal of International Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 87(2), pages 216-231.
- Frankel, Jeffrey A. & Saravelo, George, 2011. "Can Leading Indicators Assess Country Vulnerability? Evidence from the 2008-09 Global Financial Crisis," Scholarly Articles 5027952, Harvard Kennedy School of Government.
- Frankel, Jeffrey & Saravelos, George, 2011. "Can Leading Indicators Assess Country Vulnerability? Evidence from the 2008-09 Global Financial Crisis," Working Paper Series rwp11-024, Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government.
- Abdul Abiad, 2003. "Early Warning Systems: A Survey and a Regime-Switching Approach," IMF Working Papers 03/32, International Monetary Fund.
- Alessandro Prati & Massimo Sbracia, 2002.
"Currency crises and uncertainty about fundamentals,"
Temi di discussione (Economic working papers)
446, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
- M. Sbracia & Alessandro Prati, 2002. "Currency Crises and Uncertainty About Fundamentals," IMF Working Papers 02/3, International Monetary Fund.
- Abdul Abiad, 2014. "Early Warning Systems: A Survey and a Regime-Switching Approach," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 15(2), pages 993-1052, November.
- Yucel, Eray, 2011. "A Review and Bibliography of Early Warning Models," MPRA Paper 32893, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Komulainen, Tuomas, 2001. "Currency Crises in Emerging Markets: Capital Flows and Herding Behaviour," BOFIT Discussion Papers 10/2001, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
- Espino, Freddy, 2012. "Un Índice de Estabilidad Bancaria para Perú," Working Papers 2012-015, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú.
- Mendoza, Ronald U., 2004. "International reserve-holding in the developing world: self insurance in a crisis-prone era?," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 5(1), pages 61-82, March.
- Mark Illing & Ying Liu, 2003. "An Index of Financial Stress for Canada," Working Papers 03-14, Bank of Canada.
- Arias, Guillaume & Erlandsson, Ulf, 2004. "Regime switching as an alternative early warning system of currency crises - an application to South-East Asia," Working Papers 2004:11, Lund University, Department of Economics.
- Liliana Rojas-Suarez and Carlos Montoro, 2012. "Credit at Times of Stress: Latin American Lessons from the Global Financial Crisis - Working Paper 289," Working Papers 289, Center for Global Development.
- Illing, Mark & Liu, Ying, 2006. "Measuring financial stress in a developed country: An application to Canada," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 2(3), pages 243-265, October.
- Moreno, Ramón, 2011. "La formulación de políticas desde una perspectiva macroprudencial en economías emergentes," Revista Estudios Económicos, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú, issue 22, pages 21-40.
- Carlos Montoro & Liliana Rojas-Suarez, 2012. "Credit at times of stress: Latin American lessons from the global financial crisis," BIS Working Papers 370, Bank for International Settlements.
- David Hofman & Ruben Atoyan & Dimitri Tzanninis & Mauro Mecagni, 2007. "The Duration of Capital Account Crises--An Empirical Analysis," IMF Working Papers 07/258, International Monetary Fund.
- Shimpalee, Pattama L. & Breuer, Janice Boucher, 2006. "Currency crises and institutions," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 125-145, February.
- Ilene Grabel, 2003. "Predicting Financial Crisis in Developing Economies: Astronomy or Astrology?," Eastern Economic Journal, Eastern Economic Association, vol. 29(2), pages 243-258, Spring.
- Saadaoui, Zied, 2009.
"Fonds propres réglementaires et stabilité bancaire dans les pays émergents
[Capital Requirements and Banking Stability in Emerging Countries]," MPRA Paper 25217, University Library of Munich, Germany.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Timo Laurmaa).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.