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Trade prices and volumes in East Asia through the crisis

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  • Marvin Barth
  • Trevor Dinmore
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    Abstract

    This paper presents a break-down of the export and import performance of select East Asian countries into price and volume effects. The results show that in aggregate, the decline in export revenue experienced by these countries in 1998 was largely due to a 9.1 percent fall in prices, and that export volume actually rose. Similarly, while the import volume of these countries did fall in 1998, the decline was not as great as in the dollar value of those imports, but reflected a greater slide in import prices of 10.8 percent. The fall in import and export prices in the East Asian region began in 1996, before the crisis, but intensified in the Summer and Fall of 1997 as the currency crisis unfolded and has continued through the Spring of 1999. Since the fall in import prices was apparently greater than the corresponding fall in export prices, these countries have collectively seen an improvement in their terms of trade during the crisis, reversing pre-crisis declines. The six countries that form the heart of this study were the source of 12.5 percent of US non-oil imports in 1998, and the accrued benefit to the United States of this price collapse may have been as much as a quarter of the value of these imports over two years.

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    File URL: http://www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/ifdp/1999/643/default.htm
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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) in its series International Finance Discussion Papers with number 643.

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    Date of creation: 1999
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    Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgif:643

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    Keywords: Trade ; East Asia ; Exports ; Imports;

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    Cited by:
    1. Rupa Duttagupta & Antonio Spilimbergo, 2004. "What Happened to Asian Exports During the Crisis?," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 51(1), pages 4.
    2. Stefano Chiarlone & Alessia Amighini, 2000. "Any Sequel to the "Miracle"? Growth Potential in East Asia: Evidence from International Trade Flows," KITeS Working Papers 123, KITeS, Centre for Knowledge, Internationalization and Technology Studies, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy, revised Dec 2000.
    3. Eric van Wincoop & Kei-Mu Yi, 2000. "Asia crisis postmortem: where did the money go and did the United States benefit?," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Sep, pages 51-70.
    4. Forbes, Kristin J., 2002. "Cheap labor meets costly capital: the impact of devaluations on commodity firms," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(2), pages 335-365, December.
    5. Mark Gertler & Simon Gilchrist & Fabio M. Natalucci, 2007. "External Constraints on Monetary Policy and the Financial Accelerator," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(2-3), pages 295-330, 03.
    6. Kristin J. Forbes, 2002. "How Do Large Depreciations Affect Firm Performance?," NBER Working Papers 9095, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Burkart, O. & Coudert, V., 2000. "Leading Indicators of Currency Crises in Emerging Economies," Working papers 74, Banque de France.

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