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Assessing Early Warning Systems: How Have They Worked in Practice?

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Author Info
Andrew Berg
Eduardo Borensztein
Catherine Pattillo

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Abstract

Since 1999, IMF staff have been tracking several early warning system (EWS) models of currency crisis. The results have been mixed. One of the long-horizon models has performed well relative to pure guesswork and to available non-model-based forecasts, such as agency ratings and private analysts' currency crisis risk scores. The data do not speak clearly on the other long-horizon EWS model. The two short-horizon private sector models generally performed poorly. Copyright 2005, International Monetary Fund

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Article provided by Palgrave Macmillan Journals in its journal IMF Staff Papers.

Volume (Year): 52 (2005)
Issue (Month): 3 ()
Pages: 5
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Handle: RePEc:pal:imfstp:v:52:y:2005:i:3:p:5

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
F47 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Forecasting and Simulation

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

  1. Graciela Laura Kaminsky, 1999. "Currency and Banking Crises - The Early Warnings of Distress," IMF Working Papers 99/178, International Monetary Fund.
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  2. Meese, Richard A. & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1983. "Empirical exchange rate models of the seventies : Do they fit out of sample?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1-2), pages 3-24, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Harding, Don & Pagan, Adrian, 2006. "Synchronization of cycles," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 132(1), pages 59-79, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  17. Enrica Detragiache & Antonio Spilimbergo, 2001. "Crises and Liquidity - Evidence and Interpretation," IMF Working Papers 01/2, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
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(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Juan Zalduendo & Manuela Goretti & Bikas Joshi & Atish R. Ghosh & Alun H. Thomas, 2007. "Modeling Aggregate Use of Fund Resources--Analytical Approaches and Medium-Term Projections," IMF Working Papers 07/70, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  2. Andrew K. Rose & Mark M. Spiegel, 2009. "Cross-Country Causes and Consequences of the 2008 Crisis: International Linkages and American Exposure," NBER Working Papers 15358, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Crespo Cuaresma, Jesýs & Slacik, Tomas, 2007. "An "almost-too-late" warning mechanism for currency crises," BOFIT Discussion Papers 4/2007, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition. [Downloadable!]
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  4. Alessio Ciarlone & Giorgio Trebeschi, 2006. "A Multinomial Approach to Early Warning Systems for Debt Crises," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 588, Bank of Italy, Economic Research Department. [Downloadable!]
  5. Elena Loukoianova & Cheng Hoon Lim & Samuel Malone & Dale F. Gray, 2008. "A Risk-Based Debt Sustainability Framework: Incorporating Balance Sheets and Uncertainty," IMF Working Papers 08/40, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  6. Joseph E. Gagnon, 2005. "Currency crashes and bond yields in industrial countries," International Finance Discussion Papers 837, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
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  7. Thomson Fontaine, 2005. "Currency Crises in Developed and Emerging Market Economies: A Comparative Empirical Treatment," IMF Working Papers 05/13, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  8. Andrew K. Rose & Mark M. Spiegel, 2009. "Cross-country causes and consequences of the 2008 crisis: early warning," Working Paper Series 2009-17, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. [Downloadable!]
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  9. Graham Bird & Dane Rowlands, 2005. "Bi-Polar Disorder: Exchange Rate Regimes, Economic Crises and the IMF," Department of Economics Discussion Papers 0705, Department of Economics, University of Surrey. [Downloadable!]
  10. John Cady & Anthony J. Pellechio, 2005. "Data Consistency in IMF Publications: Country Staff Reports Versus International Financial Statistics," IMF Working Papers 05/46, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  11. Alfredo Pistelli, 2007. "Speculative currency attacks: role of inconsistent macroeconomic policies and real exchange rate overvaluation," Revista de Analisis Economico – Economic Analysis Review, Ilades-Georgetown University, Economics Department, vol. 22(2), pages 3-27, December. [Downloadable!]
  12. Andrea Cipollini & George Kapetanios, 2006. "Forecasting Financial Crises and Contagion in Asia using Dynamic Factor Analysis," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 477, Society for Computational Economics. [Downloadable!]
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  13. Nikolay Gueorguiev & Christoph Duenwald & Andrea Schaechter, 2005. "Too Much of a Good Thing? Credit Booms in Transition Economies: The Cases of Bulgaria, Romania, and Ukraine," IMF Working Papers 05/128, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  14. Jeanne, Olivier & Rancière, Romain, 2008. "The Optimal Level of International Reserves For Emerging Market Countries: A New Formula and Some Applications," CEPR Discussion Papers 6723, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Alfredo Pistelli, 2006. "Speculative Currency Attacks: Role of Inconsistent Macroeconomic Policies and Real Exchange Rate Overvaluation," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 379, Central Bank of Chile. [Downloadable!]
  16. Marcel Fratzscher & Matthieu Bussiere, 2002. "Towards a new early warning system of financial crises," Working Paper Series 145, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
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  17. Matthieu Bussière, 2007. "Balance of payment crises in emerging markets - how early were the “early” warning signals?," Working Paper Series 713, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  18. Törbjörn I. Becker & Paolo Mauro, 2006. "Output Drops and the Shocks That Matter," IMF Working Papers 06/172, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  19. Biswa N. Bhattacharyay, 2009. "Towards a Macroprudential Surveillance and Remedial Policy Formulation System for Monitoring Financial Crisis," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
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  21. M. Ayhan Kose & Eswar S. Prasad & Marco E. Terrones, 2007. "How Does Financial Globalization Affect Risk Sharing? Patterns and Channels," IZA Discussion Papers 2903, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA). [Downloadable!]
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  22. Selim Elekdag, 2006. "How Does the Global Economic Environment Influence the Demand for IMF Resources," IMF Working Papers 06/239, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
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