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Default, Currency Crises, and Sovereign Credit Ratings

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Author Info
Carmen M. Reinhart

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Abstract

Sovereign credit ratings play an important part in determining countries' access to international capital markets and the terms of that access. In principle, there is no reason to expect that sovereign credit ratings should systematically predict currency crises. In practice, in emerging market economies there is a strong link between currency crises and default. Hence if credit ratings are forward-looking and currency crises in emerging market economies are linked to defaults, it follows that downgrades in credit ratings should systematically precede currency crises. This article presents results suggesting that sovereign credit ratings systematically fail to predict currency crises but do considerably better in predicting defaults. Downgrades in credit ratings usually follow currency crises, possibly suggesting that currency instability increases the risk of default. Copyright 2002, Oxford University Press.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by Oxford University Press in its journal The World Bank Economic Review.

Volume (Year): 16 (2002)
Issue (Month): 2 (August)
Pages: 151-170
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Handle: RePEc:oup:wbecrv:v:16:y:2002:i:2:p:151-170

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  1. Bernhard Herz & Hui Tong, 2003. "The Interactions between Debt and Currency Crises – Common Causes or Contagion?," Macroeconomics currcrisis-ht_2003-12, Department of Economics, Economics I, Bayreuth University. [Downloadable!]
  2. Samir Jahjah & Peter Montiel, 2003. "Exchange Rate Policy and Debt Crises in Emerging Economies," IMF Working Papers 03/60, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  3. Ricarda Demarmels & Andreas M. Fischer, 2002. "Understanding Reserve Volatility in Emerging Markets: A Look at the Last Thirty Years," Working Papers 02.02, Swiss National Bank, Study Center Gerzensee. [Downloadable!]
  4. Ilan Noy, 2004. "Do IMF Bailouts Result in Moral Hazard? An Events-Study Approach," Working Papers 200402, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  5. Thomas Stratmann & Bernardin Akitoby, 2006. "Fiscal Policy and Financial Markets," IMF Working Papers 06/16, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  6. Zelal Aktas & Neslihan Kaya & Umit Ozlale, 2005. "The Price Puzzle in Emerging Markets : Evidence from the Turkish Economy Using Model Based Risk Premium Derived from Domestic Fundamentals," Working Papers 0502, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey. [Downloadable!]
  7. Guillermo Tolosa & Rupa Duttagupta, 2006. "Fiscal Discipline and Exchange Rate Regimes: Evidence from the Caribbean," IMF Working Papers 06/119, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  8. Tobias Knedlik & Johannes Stöbel, 2006. "The role of banking portfolios in the transmission from currency crises to banking crises - potential effects of Basel II," IWH Discussion Papers 21-06, Halle Institute for Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
  9. Bernhard Herz & Christian Bauer & Volker Karb, . "The Other Twins: Currency and Debt Crises," Macroeconomics theothertwins-herz-bauer-, Department of Economics, Economics I, Bayreuth University. [Downloadable!]
  10. Paolo Manasse & Axel Schimmelpfennig & Nouriel Roubini, 2003. "Predicting Sovereign Debt Crises," IMF Working Papers 03/221, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  11. Galina Hale, 2005. "Courage to Capital? A Model of the Effects of Rating Agencies on Sovereign Debt Roll–over," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp062, IIIS. [Downloadable!]
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  12. S Jahjah & P Montiel, 2006. "Corruption Clubs: The Allocation of Public Expenditure and Economic Growth," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 70, Economics, The Univeristy of Manchester. [Downloadable!]
  13. Sergio Godoy, 2005. "Emerging Market Spreads at the Turn of The Century: A Roller Coaster Sergio Godoy," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 339, Central Bank of Chile. [Downloadable!]
  14. Yýlmaz Akyüz, . "Global Rules and Markets: Constraints over Policy Autonomy in Developing Countries," Working Papers 2007/5, Turkish Economic Association. [Downloadable!]
  15. Sotiris K. Staikouras, 2004. "A chronicle of the banking and currency crises," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 11(14), pages 873-878, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  16. Paolo Manasse & Nouriel Roubini, 2005. "'Rules of Thumb' for Sovereign Debt Crises," International Finance 0509003, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
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  17. Kraay, Aart & Nehru, Vikram, 2004. "When is external debt sustainable?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3200, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
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  18. Eduardo Borensztein & Catherine A. Pattillo & Andrew Berg, 2004. "Assessing Early Warning Systems: How Have They Worked in Practice?," IMF Working Papers 04/52, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
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  19. Franz Hamann, 2002. "Sovereign Risk And Real Business Cycles In A Small Open Economic," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 003521, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA. [Downloadable!]
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  20. Andreas Wiggers, 2002. "Default-risky Sovereign Debt," Bonn Econ Discussion Papers bgse36_2002, University of Bonn, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  21. Demarmels, Ricarda & Fischer, Andreas M, 2003. "Understanding Reserve Volatility in Emerging Markets: A Look at the Long-Run," CEPR Discussion Papers 3908, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  22. Luis Catão & Sandeep Kapur, 2006. "Volatility and the Debt-Intolerance Paradox," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan Journals, vol. 53(2), pages 1. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  23. Yilmaz Akyuz, 2008. "Managing Financial Instability in Emerging Markets: A Keynesian Perspective," Working Papers 2008/4, Turkish Economic Association. [Downloadable!]
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