Default, currency crises, and sovereign credit ratings
AbstractSovereign credit ratings play an important part in determining countries’ access to international capital markets and the terms of that access. In principle, there is no reason to expect that sovereign credit ratings should systematically predict currency crises. In practice, however, in emerging market economies there is a strong link between currency crises and default. Hence if credit ratings are forward-looking and currency crises in emerging market economies are linked to defaults, it follows that downgrades in credit ratings should systematically precede currency crises. This article presents results suggesting that sovereign credit ratings systematically fail to predict currency crises but do considerably better in predicting defaults. Downgrades in credit ratings usually follow currency crises, possibly suggesting that currency instability increases the risk of default.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 13917.
Date of creation: 2002
Date of revision:
Publication status: Published in World Bank Economic Review 2.16(2002): pp. 151-170
default debt crisis currency crisis credit ratings interest rates;
Other versions of this item:
- Carmen M. Reinhart, 2002. "Default, Currency Crises, and Sovereign Credit Ratings," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, World Bank Group, vol. 16(2), pages 151-170, August.
- Carmen M. Reinhart, 2002. "Default, Currency Crises and Sovereign Credit Ratings," NBER Working Papers 8738, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- F30 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - General
- E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
- E47 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
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