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A Model of the ERM Crisis

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Author Info
Ozkan, F Gulcin
Sutherland, Alan

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Abstract

Existing models of exchange rate crises do not provide a good explanation for the breakdown of the ERM in 1992<196>3. This paper presents an alternative model which captures some of the important features of that period. The switch from a fixed to a floating rate is triggered by an optimizing government that wants to loosen monetary policy and boost aggregate demand. Agents in the foreign exchange market know the government's objective function and therefore build expectations of a regime switch into interest differentials. It is shown that this interaction between private sector expectations and government preferences can imply a breakdown of the fixed rate sooner than the government would like.

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Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 879.

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Date of creation: Jan 1994
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:879

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Related research
Keywords: Balance of Payments Crises; EMS; ERM; Speculative Attacks;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements

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  1. Peter Kenen, 1996. "Analyzing and managing exchange-rate crises," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 7(1), pages 469-492, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Heinemann, Friedrich, 1998. "EMU and fiscal discipline : the end of the depreciation threat," ZEW Discussion Papers 98-30, ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
  3. Kruger, Mark & Osakwe, Patrick N. & Page, Jennifer, 1998. "Fundamentals, Contagion and Currency Crises: An Empirical Analysis," Working Papers 98-10, Bank of Canada. [Downloadable!]
  4. Barry Eichengreen & Andrew K. Rose & Charles Wyplosz, 1994. "Speculative Attacks on Pegged Exchange Rates: An Empirical Exploration with Special Reference to the European Monetary System," NBER Working Papers 4898, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  5. Weber, Axel A., 1997. "Sources of Currency Crisis: An Empirical Analysis," Discussion Paper Serie B 418, University of Bonn, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  6. Mundaca,B.G. & Strand,J., 1999. "Speculative attacks in the exchange market with a band policy : a sequential game analysis," Memorandum 01/1999, Oslo University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  7. Maurice Obstfeld, 1994. "The Logic of Currency Crises," NBER Working Papers 4640, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Michael Bordo & Anna Schwartz, 1996. "Why clashes between internal and external stability goals end in currency crises, 1797–1994," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 7(1), pages 437-468, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Jenny Corbett & Gregor Irwin & David Vines, 1999. "From Asian Miracle to Asian Crisis: Why Vulnerability, Why Collapse?," RBA Annual Conference Volume, in: David Gruen & Luke Gower (ed.), Capital Flows and the International Financial System Reserve Bank of Australia. [Downloadable!]
  10. Axel A. Weber, 1998. "Sources of currency crises: an empirical analysis," Working Papers 25, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank). [Downloadable!]
  11. Eichengreen, Barry, 2001. "The EMS Crisis in Retrospect," CEPR Discussion Papers 2704, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  12. Pastine, Ivan, 2001. "Speculation and the Decision to Abandon a Fixed Exchange Rate Regime," CEPR Discussion Papers 2893, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  13. Torben Andersen, 1998. "Shocks and the Viability of a Fixed Exchange Rate Commitment," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 9(2), pages 139-156, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Juan Garcia, 1999. "The Collapse of the ‘New EMS’: An Interpretation," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 10(2), pages 203-219, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. W.H. Buiter, 1995. "Macroeconomic Policy During a Transition to Monetary Union," CEP Discussion Papers dp0261, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE. [Downloadable!]
  16. Michael D. Bordo & Anna J. Schwartz, 1997. "Why Clashes Between Internal and External Stability Goals End in Currency Crises, 1797-1994," NBER Working Papers 5710, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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