Self-Fulfilling Expectations, Speculative Attack, and Capital Controls

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Self-Fulfilling Expectations, Speculative Attack, and Capital Controls

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Dellas, Harris
Stockman, Alan

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Abstract

This paper examines the endogenous implementation of capital controls in the context of a fixed exchange rate regime. It is shown that if there exists a nonzero probability that the policymaker's response to a significant decrease in official foreign reserves will be the introduction of controls, a speculative attack may occur even when current and expected monetary policy is consistent with a permanently viable, control-free, fixed exchange rate regime. Consequently, capital controls may be the outcome of self-fulfilling expectations rather than the result of imprudent economic policies. Copyright 1993 by Ohio State University Press.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by Blackwell Publishing in its journal Journal of Money, Credit and Banking.

Volume (Year): 25 (1993)
Issue (Month): 4 (November)
Pages: 721-30
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Handle: RePEc:mcb:jmoncb:v:25:y:1993:i:4:p:721-30

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Paper
- Dellas, H. & Stockman, A.C., 1988. "Self-Fullfilling Expectations, Speculative Attacks And Capital Controls," RCER Working Papers 138, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

Barry Eichengreen & Andrew K. Rose & Charles Wyplosz, 1994. "Speculative Attacks on Pegged Exchange Rates: An Empirical Exploration with Special Reference to the European Monetary System," NBER Working Papers 4898, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Other versions:
- Barry Eichengreen & Andrew K. Rose & Charles Wyplosz, 1995. "Speculative attacks on pegged exchange rates: an empirical exploration with special reference to the European Monetary System," Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory 95-04, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
- Eichengreen, Barry & Rose, Andrew K & Wyplosz, Charles, 1994. "Speculative Attacks on Pegged Exchange Rates: An Empirical Exploration with Special Reference to the European Monetary System," CEPR Discussion Papers 1060, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
- Barry Eichengreen, Andrew K. Rose, and Charles Wyplosz., 1995. "Speculative Attacks on Pegged Exchange Rates: An Empirical Exploration with Special Reference to the European Monetary System," Center for International and Development Economics Research (CIDER) Working Papers C95-046, University of California at Berkeley.
Weber, Axel A., 1997. "Sources of Currency Crisis: An Empirical Analysis," Discussion Paper Serie B 418, University of Bonn, Germany. [Downloadable!]
Mundaca,B.G. & Strand,J., 1999. "Speculative attacks in the exchange market with a band policy : a sequential game analysis," Memorandum 01/1999, Oslo University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
Maurice Obstfeld, 1994. "The Logic of Currency Crises," NBER Working Papers 4640, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Kaminsky, Graciela & Lizondo, Saul & Reinhart, Carmen M., 1997. "Leading indicators of currency crises," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1852, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
Other versions:
- Graciela Laura Kaminsky, 1997. "Leading Indicators of Currency Crises," IMF Working Papers 97/79, International Monetary Fund.
- Reinhart, Carmen & Kaminsky, Graciela & Lizondo, Saul, 1998. "Leading Indicators of Currency Crises," MPRA Paper 6981, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
- Graciela Kaminsky & Saul Lizondo & Carmen Reinhart, 1998. "Leading Indicators of Currency Crisis," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan Journals, vol. 45(1), pages 1. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Axel A. Weber, 1998. "Sources of currency crises: an empirical analysis," Working Papers 25, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank). [Downloadable!]
Philippe Bacchetta, 1996. "Capital controls and the political discount: The Spanish experience in the late 1980s," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 7(4), pages 349-369, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Harry Kelejian & George Tavlas & George Hondroyiannis, 2006. "A Spatial Modelling Approach to Contagion Among Emerging Economies," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 17(4), pages 423-441, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Reuven Glick & Xueyan Guo & Michael Hutchison, 2005. "Currency crises, capital account liberalization, and selection bias," Pacific Basin Working Paper Series 2004-15, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. [Downloadable!]
Other versions:
- Reuven Glick & Xueyan Guo & Michael Hutchison, 2004. "Currency Crises, Capital Account Liberalization, and Selection Bias," EPRU Working Paper Series 04-11, Economic Policy Research Unit (EPRU), University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
- Reuven Glick & Xueyan Guo & Michael Hutchison, 2004. "Currency Crises, Capital Account Liberalization, and Selection Bias," Santa Cruz Center for International Economics, Working Paper Series 1037, Center for International Economics, UC Santa Cruz. [Downloadable!]
- Reuven Glick & Xueyan Guo & Michael Hutchison, 2004. "Currency Crises, Capital Account Liberalization, and Selection Bias," Santa Cruz Department of Economics, Working Paper Series 1008, Department of Economics, UC Santa Cruz. [Downloadable!]
- Reuven Glick & Xueyan Guo & Michael Hutchison, 2006. "Currency Crises, Capital-Account Liberalization, and Selection Bias," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 88(4), pages 698-714, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)

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