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Testing Long-run Neutrality: Empirical Evidence for G7 Countries with Special Emphasis on Germany

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Author Info
Weber, Axel A
Abstract

Modern neo-Keynesian, new classical, and real business cycle models typically differ in the degree to which they incorporate long-run or short-run neutrality propositions. Despite their importance, little firm international evidence on the validity of these neutrality hypotheses is available to date. This paper applies a bivariate VAR approach to test the long-run restrictions implied by a number of neoclassical neutrality propositions. The evidence from the G7 countries appears to be consistent with the long-run neutrality of money and the vertical Phillips curve, but the data largely refute the long-run super-neutrality of money and the `Fisher effect' of inflation on interest rates.

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Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 1042.

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Date of creation: Oct 1994
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:1042

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Related research
Keywords: Fisher Effect; Long Run; Lucus Critique; Neutrality; Phillips Curve; Superneutrality; Unit Roots; Vector Autoregressions;

Find related papers by JEL classification:
E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Determination of Interest Rates; Term Structure of Interest Rates
E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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  1. Andreas Beyer & Alfred A. Haug & William G. Dewald, 2009. "Structural Breaks, Cointegration and the Fisher Effect," Working Paper Series 1013, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  2. James Bullard & Steve Russell, 1998. "Monetary steady states in a low real interest rate economy," Working Papers 1994-012, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
  3. Camille Logeay & Silke Tober, 2003. "Time-varying Nairu and Real Interest Rates in the Euro Area," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 351, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
  4. Westerlund, Joakim & Costantini, Mauro, 2006. "Panel Cointegration and the Neutrality of Money," Working Papers 2006:18, Lund University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Zisimos Koustas & Jean-Francois Lamarche, 2005. "Policy-Induced Mean Reversion in the Real Interest Rate?," Working Papers 0601, Brock University, Department of Economics, revised Feb 2006. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  6. James Bullard, 1999. "Testing long-run monetary neutrality propositions: lessons from the recent research," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Nov, pages 57-77. [Downloadable!]
  7. Mark J. Jensen, 2006. "The long-run Fisher effect: can it be tested?," Working Paper 2006-11, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  8. Taku Yamamoto & Eiji Kurozumi, 2003. "Tests for Long-Run Granger Non-Causality in Cointegrated Systems," Hi-Stat Discussion Paper Series d03-01, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University. [Downloadable!]
  9. Jan Gottschalk, 2002. "Keynesian and Monetarist Views on the German Unemployment Problem — Theory and Evidence," Kiel Working Papers 1096, Kiel Institute for the World Economy. [Downloadable!]
  10. João R. Faria & Francisco Galrão Carneiro, 2001. "Does High Inflation Affect Growth in the Long and Short Run?," Journal of Applied Economics, Universidad del CEMA, vol. 0, pages 89-105, May. [Downloadable!]
  11. Laurence Boone & Benoit Mojon, 1998. "Sacrifice Ratios in Europe: A Comparison," Working Papers 1998-07, CEPII research center. [Downloadable!]
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