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Testing Long-run Neutrality: Empirical Evidence for G7 Countries with Special Emphasis on Germany

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  • Weber, Axel A
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    Abstract

    Modern neo-Keynesian, new classical, and real business cycle models typically differ in the degree to which they incorporate long-run or short-run neutrality propositions. Despite their importance, little firm international evidence on the validity of these neutrality hypotheses is available to date. This paper applies a bivariate VAR approach to test the long-run restrictions implied by a number of neoclassical neutrality propositions. The evidence from the G7 countries appears to be consistent with the long-run neutrality of money and the vertical Phillips curve, but the data largely refute the long-run super-neutrality of money and the `Fisher effect' of inflation on interest rates.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 1042.

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    Date of creation: Oct 1994
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    Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:1042

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    Related research

    Keywords: Fisher Effect; Long Run; Lucus Critique; Neutrality; Phillips Curve; Superneutrality; Unit Roots; Vector Autoregressions;

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    Cited by:
    1. Bullard, James & Keating, John W., 1995. "The long-run relationship between inflation and output in postwar economies," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 477-496, December.
    2. James Bullard & Steve Russell, 1998. "Monetary steady states in a low real interest rate economy," Working Papers 1994-012, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    3. Moosa, Imad A., 1997. "Testing the long-run neutrality of money in a developing economy: the case of India," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(1), pages 139-155, June.
    4. Zisimos Koustas & Jean-Francois Lamarche, 2005. "Policy-Induced Mean Reversion in the Real Interest Rate?," Working Papers 0503, Brock University, Department of Economics, revised Jul 2005.
    5. Laurence Boone & Benoît Mojon, 1998. "Sacrifice Ratios in Europe: a Comparison," Working Papers 1998-07, CEPII research center.
    6. Jan Gottschalk, 2002. "Keynesian and Monetarist Views on the German Unemployment Problem � Theory and Evidence," Kiel Working Papers 1096, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
    7. Ribba, Antonio, 2007. "Permanent disinflationary effects on unemployment in a small open economy: Italy 1979-1995," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 66-81, January.
    8. Camille Logeay & Silke Tober, 2003. "Time-Varying Nairu and Real Interest Rates in the Euro Area," Economics Working Papers 024, European Network of Economic Policy Research Institutes.
    9. Hondroyiannis, George & Papapetrou, Evangelia, 2006. "Stock returns and inflation in Greece: A Markov switching approach," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 76-94.
    10. Joakim Westerlund & Mauro Costantini, 2009. "Panel cointegration and the neutrality of money," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 36(1), pages 1-26, February.
    11. Pascal Jacquinot, 2001. "L’inflation sous-jacente en France, en Allemagne et Royaume-Uni," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 147(1), pages 171-185.
    12. Beyer, Andreas & Haug, Alfred A. & Dewald, William G., 2009. "Structural breaks, cointegration and the Fisher effect," Working Paper Series 1013, European Central Bank.
    13. Mark J. Jensen, 2009. "The Long-Run Fisher Effect: Can It Be Tested?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 41(1), pages 221-231, 02.
    14. Ashra, Sunil & Chattopadhyay, Saumen & Chaudhuri, Kausik, 2004. "Deficit, money and price: the Indian experience," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 289-299, April.
    15. João R. Faria & Francisco Galrão Carneiro, 2001. "Does High Inflation Affect Growth in the Long and Short Run?," Journal of Applied Economics, Universidad del CEMA, vol. 0, pages 89-105, May.
    16. James Bullard, 1999. "Testing long-run monetary neutrality propositions: lessons from the recent research," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Nov, pages 57-77.

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