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Explanations of Exchange Rate Volatility and Other Empirical Regularities in Some Popular Models of the Foreign Exchange Market

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Robert P. Flood

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Abstract

The present paper is intended to accomplish two tasks. First, models predicting overshooting and magnification, respectively, will be checked for their consistency with two key empirical regularities: A. The observed pattern of price level vs. exchange-rate volatility. B. The observed pattern of spot exchange-rate vs. forward exchange-rate volatility. Second, a widely neglected reason for exchange-rate volatility, activist monetary policy, will be studied.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 0625.

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Date of creation: Feb 1982
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:0625

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References listed on IDEAS
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  1. Frankel, Jeffrey A, 1979. "On the Mark: A Theory of Floating Exchange Rates Based on Real Interest Differentials," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 69(4), pages 610-22, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  1. David H. Papell, 1986. "Activist Monetary Policy, Imperfect Capital Mobility, and the Overshooting Hypothesis," NBER Working Papers 1244, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  2. Richard Meese & Kenneth Rogoff, 1989. "Was it Real? The Exchange Rate-Interest Differential Relation, 1973-1984," NBER Working Papers 1732, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. Weber, Axel A., 1997. "Sources of Currency Crisis: An Empirical Analysis," Discussion Paper Serie B 418, University of Bonn, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  4. Alberto Giovannini, 1988. "The Macroeconomics of Exchange-rate and Price-level Interactions: Empirical Evidence for West Germany," NBER Working Papers 2544, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Irving B. Kravis & Robert E. Lipsey, 1982. "Towards an Explanation of National Price Levels," NBER Working Papers 1034, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Richard Clarida & Jordi Gali, 1994. "Sources of Real Exchange Rate Fluctuations: How Important are Nominal Shocks?," NBER Working Papers 4658, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Jeffrey A. Frankel & James H. Stock, 1987. "A Relationship Between Regression Tests and Volatility Tests of Market ncy," NBER Working Papers 1105, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Axel A. Weber, 1998. "Sources of currency crises: an empirical analysis," Working Papers 25, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank). [Downloadable!]
  9. Weber, Axel A., 1997. "Sources of Purchasing Power Disparities Between the G3-Economies," Discussion Paper Serie B 419, University of Bonn, Germany. [Downloadable!]
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