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Fiscal Deficits, Exchange Rate Crises and Inflation

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Author Info
van Wijnbergen, Sweder

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Abstract

The analysis focuses on the government budget constraint and the resolution of inconsistent implications of different policy instruments under that constraint. We show how, under floating exchange rates, external shocks or internal structural reforms may cause jumps in inflation and the exchange rate through their impact on the government budget. In order to achieve a sustainable reduction in inflation an exchange rate freeze or crawling peg is shown to require restrictions not only on domestic credit, but also on the rate of increase in interest-bearing public debt. We endogenize regime collapse by introducing rational speculation against the central bank, and show that if an exchange rate freeze collapses, post-collapse inflation will exceed the rate prevailing before the freeze started.

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Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 87.

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Date of creation: Dec 1985
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:87

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Related research
Keywords: Crawling Peg Inflation; Exchange Rates Freeze; Government Budget Constraint;

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Blanco, Herminio & Garber, Peter M, 1986. "Recurrent Devaluation and Speculative Attacks on the Mexican Peso," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 94(1), pages 148-66, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Buiter, Willem H, 1986. "Borrowing to Defend the Exchange Rate and the Timing and Magnitude of Speculative Attacks," CEPR Discussion Papers 95, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Salant, Stephen W & Henderson, Dale W, 1978. "Market Anticipations of Government Policies and the Price of Gold," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 86(4), pages 627-48, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Chamley, Christophe, 1985. "On a simple rule for the optimal inflation rate in second best taxation," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 35-50, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Rudiger Dornbusch & Stanley Fischer, 1986. "Stopping Hyperinflations Past and Present," NBER Working Papers 1810, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Blanchard, Olivier J, 1985. "Debt, Deficits, and Finite Horizons," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 93(2), pages 223-47, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Obstfeld, Maurice, 1981. "Macroeconomic Policy, Exchange-Rate Dynamics, and Optimal Asset Accumulation," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 89(6), pages 1142-61, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Kharas, Homi, 1984. "The Long-Run Creditworthiness of Developing Countries: Theory and Practice," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 99(3), pages 415-39, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Buiter, Willem H, 1984. "Fiscal Policy in Open, Interdependent Economies," CEPR Discussion Papers 28, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Flood, Robert P & Garber, Peter M, 1980. "An Economic Theory of Monetary Reform," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 88(1), pages 24-58, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Krugman, Paul, 1979. "A Model of Balance-of-Payments Crises," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 11(3), pages 311-25, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Feenstra, Robert C., 1986. "Functional equivalence between liquidity costs and the utility of money," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 271-291, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Liviatan, Nissan, 1984. "Tight money and inflation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(1), pages 5-15, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Willem H. Buiter, 1982. "Comment on T. J. Sargent and N. Wallace: "Some Unpleasant Monetarist Arithmetic"," NBER Working Papers 0867, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Drazen, Allan, 1985. "Tight money and inflation: Further Results," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 113-120, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Fiess, Norbert & Shankar, Rashmi, 2005. "Regime-switching in exchange rate policy and balance sheet effects," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3653, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Burnside, Craig & Eichenbaum, Martin & Rebelo, Sergio, 1999. "Prospective deficits and the asian currency crisis," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2174, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
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