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Commodity markets and the international transmission of fiscal shocks

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  • Reinhart, Carmen

Abstract

The "engine of growth" argument holds that an economic expansion in a large country increases the growth of its trading partners. Growth in developing countries is routinely linked to growth patterns in the Industrial economies. This paper examines the role of commodity markets in transmitting disturbances internationally and finds that contrary to the implications of the "engine of growth" argument, a fiscal-induced expansion in a large commodity-importing country could either increase or decrease growth in the developing commodity-exporting country, and unambiguously reduces output in the second commodity-importing country.

Suggested Citation

  • Reinhart, Carmen, 1988. "Commodity markets and the international transmission of fiscal shocks," MPRA Paper 13411, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:13411
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    Cited by:

    1. Carmen M. Reinhart, 1991. "Fiscal Policy, the Real Exchange Rate, and Commodity Prices," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 38(3), pages 506-524, September.
    2. John Baffes & Cristina Savescu, 2014. "Monetary conditions and metal prices," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(7), pages 447-452, May.
    3. John Baffes & Damir Cosic, 2014. "Global Economic Prospects : Commodity Markets Outlook, January 2014," World Bank Publications, The World Bank, number 18996.
    4. Carmen M. Reinhart, 1991. "Fiscal Policy, the Real Exchange Rate, and Commodity Prices," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 38(3), pages 506-524, September.
    5. Arango-Thomas, Luis Eduardo & Chavarro-Sanchez, Ximena & González-Molano, Eliana Rocío, 2013. "Precios de bienes primarios e inflación en Colombia," Chapters, in: Rincón-Castro, Hernán & Velasco, Andrés M. (ed.), Flujos de capitales, choques externos y respuestas de política en países emergentes, chapter 12, pages 487-532, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    6. Simona Delle Chiaie & Laurent Ferrara & Domenico Giannone, 2022. "Common factors of commodity prices," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 37(3), pages 461-476, April.
    7. Baffes, John & Dennis, Allen, 2013. "Long-term drivers of food prices," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6455, The World Bank.
    8. John Baffes & Tassos Haniotis, 2016. "What Explains Agricultural Price Movements?," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 67(3), pages 706-721, September.
    9. Eduardo Borensztein & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1994. "The Macroeconomic Determinants of Commodity Prices," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 41(2), pages 236-261, June.
    10. Carmen M. Reinhart, 1995. "Devaluation, Relative Prices, and International Trade: Evidence from Developing Countries," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 42(2), pages 290-312, June.
    11. Luis E. Arango & Fernando Arias & Adriana Flórez, 2012. "Determinants of commodity prices," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(2), pages 135-145, January.
    12. Ms. Hong Liang & Mr. John T. Cuddington, 2000. "Will the Emergence of the Euro Affect World Commodity Prices?," IMF Working Papers 2000/208, International Monetary Fund.
    13. John Baffes & Xiaoli L. Etienne, 2016. "Analysing food price trends in the context of Engel’s Law and the Prebisch-Singer hypothesis," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 68(3), pages 688-713.
    14. René Lalonde & Zhenhua Zhu & Frédérick Demers, 2003. "Forecasting and Analyzing World Commodity Prices," Money Affairs, CEMLA, vol. 0(1), pages 1-30, January-J.
    15. Luis Eduardo Arango & Fernando Arias & Luz Adriana Flórez, 2008. "Trends, Fluctuations, and Determinants of Commodity Prices," Borradores de Economia 4734, Banco de la Republica.
    16. Néstor Adrián le Clech, 2013. "Determinantes del precio internacional de la soja," Economic Analysis Working Papers (2002-2010). Atlantic Review of Economics (2011-2016), Colexio de Economistas de A Coruña, Spain and Fundación Una Galicia Moderna, vol. 2, pages 1-1, December.
    17. Webber, Anthony G, 1997. "Australian Commodity Export Pass-through and Feedback Causality from Commodity Prices to the Exchange Rate," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(68), pages 55-68, June.
    18. Carmen M. Reinhart, 1995. "Devaluation, Relative Prices, and International Trade: Evidence from Developing Countries," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 42(2), pages 290-312, June.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    commodity prices fiscal policy trade exports;

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • F10 - International Economics - - Trade - - - General

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