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Borrowing to Defend the Exchange Rate and the Timing and Magnitude of Speculative Attacks

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Author Info
Buiter, Willem H

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Abstract

The paper extends the recent literature on the collapse of managed exchange-rate regimes by allowing explicitly for the government budget constraint and the interest cost of servicing the public debt. The policy experiment analysed in this paper is the decision by a government to replenish its stock of foreign exchange reserves through a once-off open market sale of bonds. Without a fundamental fiscal correction (i.e. a decision to reduce the primary (non-interest) deficit by an amount equal to the increase in the interest cost of servicing the debt) the consequences of this policy are as follows: in a deterministic model, the timing of the speculative attack is brought forward (delayed) if the borrowing takes place long before (close to) the date at which without borrowing the collapse would have occurred. The magnitude of the attack (the final loss of reserves) always increases because of borrowing. In a stochastic model, borrowing reduces the probability of an early collapse and increases the likelihood of a later collapse. Under mild conditions, the expected length of the time interval until the collapse occurs is increased by borrowing.

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Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 95.

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Date of creation: Feb 1986
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:95

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Related research
Keywords: Borrowing; Exchange Rates; Managed Exchange-Rate Regimes; Speculative Attack;

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References listed on IDEAS
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  1. Obstfeld, Maurice, 1984. "Balance-of-Payments Crises and Devaluation," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 16(2), pages 208-17, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Diamond, Douglas W & Dybvig, Philip H, 1983. "Bank Runs, Deposit Insurance, and Liquidity," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(3), pages 401-19, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Willem H. Buiter & Vittorio U. Grilli, 1989. "The "Gold Standard Paradox" and its Resolution," NBER Working Papers 3178, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  2. Oreste Napolitano & Alberto Montagnoli & Rosaria Rita Canale, 2002. "The Role And Nature Of Market Sentiment In The 1992 Erm Crisis," Economics and Finance Discussion Papers 02-20, Economics and Finance Section, School of Social Sciences, Brunel University. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Sweder van Wijnbergen, 1987. "Fiscal Deficits, Exchange Rate Crises and Inflation," NBER Working Papers 2130, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  4. Willem H. Buiter, 1987. "Fiscal Prerequisites for a Viable Managed Exchange Rate Regime: A Non-technical Eclectic Introduction," NBER Working Papers 2041, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  5. Mundaca,B.G. & Strand,J., 1999. "Speculative attacks in the exchange market with a band policy : a sequential game analysis," Memorandum 01/1999, Oslo University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  6. Kenneth Kletzer & Mark Spiegel, 1999. "Sterilization costs and exchange rate targeting," Pacific Basin Working Paper Series 99-03, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  7. James Bullard, 1991. "Collapsing exchange rate regimes: a reinterpretation," Working Papers 1991-003, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
  8. Vittorio Grilli, 1989. "Managing Exchange Rate Crises: Evidence from the 1890's," NBER Working Papers 3068, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Maurice Obstfeld, 1994. "The Logic of Currency Crises," NBER Working Papers 4640, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Robert E. Cumby & Sweder van Wijnbergen, 1987. "Finanial Policy and Speculative Runs with a Crawling Peg: Argentina 1979-1981," NBER Working Papers 2376, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. A. Craig Burnside & Martin S. Eichenbaum & Sergio Rebelo, 2003. "On the Fiscal Implications of Twin Crises," NBER Chapters, in: Managing Currency Crises in Emerging Markets, pages 187-224 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!]
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  12. Flood, Robert P & Jeanne, Olivier, 2000. "An Interest Rate Defence of a Fixed Exchange Rate?," CEPR Discussion Papers 2507, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  13. Frédéric Gavrel, 1991. "Changes fixes, changes flexibles et solvabilité de l'Etat," Annales d'Economie et de Statistique, ADRES, issue 24, pages 07, Octobre-D. [Downloadable!]
  14. R. Sean Craig, 1991. "EMS interest rate differentials and fiscal policy: a model with an empirical application to Italy," International Finance Discussion Papers 405, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  15. Sergio Rebelo & Carlos A. Vegh, 2006. "When Is It Optimal to Abandon a Fixed Exchange Rate?," NBER Working Papers 12793, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  16. Jeffrey D. Sachs, 1987. "Trade and Exchange Rate Policies in Growth-Oriented Adjustment Programs," NBER Working Papers 2226, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  17. Goldberg, Linda S., 1990. "Predicting Exchange Rate Crises: Mexico Revisited," Working Papers 90-11, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University. [Downloadable!]
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  18. Willem H. Buiter, 1988. "Can Public Spending Cuts be Inflationary?," NBER Working Papers 2528, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
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