Economic Fundamentals and Self-Fulfilling Crises: Some Evidence from Mexico
AbstractThis paper considers a model of debt stabilitisation under a fixed exchange rate in which a currency crisis can develop as the result of self-fulfilling speculation, following a bifurcation in the behaviour of economic fundamentals. Based on this theoretical framework and by exploiting the test developed by Jeanne (1997), this paper provides evidence that self-fulfilling speculation was at work in the 1994 Mexican crisis. In terms of fundamentals, we show that the critical variables in generating the Mexican crisis were the fast rise in the US$-denominated public debt (tesebonos), the appreciated real exchange rate and the small rises in unemployment and primary deficit.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Economics, The University of Manchester in its series The School of Economics Discussion Paper Series with number 0214.
Date of creation: 2002
Date of revision:
Contact details of provider:
Postal: Manchester M13 9PL
Phone: (0)161 275 4868
Fax: (0)161 275 4812
Web page: http://www.socialsciences.manchester.ac.uk/disciplines/economics/
More information through EDIRC
Other versions of this item:
- G J Bratsiotis & W Robinson, 2002. "Economic Fundamentals and Self-Fulfilling Crises: Some Evidence from Mexico," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 23, Economics, The Univeristy of Manchester.
- NEP-ALL-2003-03-03 (All new papers)
- NEP-FIN-2003-03-03 (Finance)
- NEP-MAC-2003-03-03 (Macroeconomics)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Dooley, Michael P, 2000.
"A Model of Crises in Emerging Markets,"
Royal Economic Society, vol. 110(460), pages 256-72, January.
- Michael P. Dooley, 1998. "A model of crises in emerging markets," International Finance Discussion Papers 630, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Michael P. Dooley, 1997. "A Model of Crises in Emerging Markets," NBER Working Papers 6300, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Obstfeld, Maurice, 1996.
"Models of Currency Crises with Self-fulfilling Features,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
1315, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Obstfeld, Maurice, 1996. "Models of currency crises with self-fulfilling features," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 40(3-5), pages 1037-1047, April.
- Maurice Obstfeld, 1997. "Models of Currency Crises with Self-Fulfilling Features," NBER Working Papers 5285, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Steven Radelet & Jeffrey Sachs, 1998. "The Onset of the East Asian Financial Crisis," NBER Working Papers 6680, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Jeanne, Olivier, 1997. "Are currency crises self-fulfilling?: A test," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(3-4), pages 263-286, November.
- Sachs, Jeffrey & Tornell, Aaron & Velasco, Andres, 1996.
"The Mexican peso crisis: Sudden death or death foretold?,"
Journal of International Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 41(3-4), pages 265-283, November.
- Jeffrey Sachs & Aaron Tornell & Andres Velasco, 1996. "The Mexican Peso Crisis: Sudden Death or Death Foretold?," NBER Working Papers 5563, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Jeffrey Sachs & Aaron Tornell & Andres Velasco, 1996. "The Mexican Peso Crisis: Sudden Death or Death Foretold?," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 1760, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
- Sachs, J. & Tornell, A. & Velasco, A., 1996. "The Mexican Peso Crisis: Sudden Death or Death Foretold?," Working Papers 96-20, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University.
- Melike Altinkemer, 1996. "Problems with Issuing Foreign Currency and Foreign Indexed Bonds in the Light of Mexican Experience," Discussion Papers 9617, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
- Rudiger Dornbusch & Alejandro Werner, 1994. "Mexico: Stabilization, Reform, and No Growth," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 25(1), pages 253-316.
- Anand, Ritu & van Wijnbergen, Sweder, 1989. "Inflation and the Financing of Government Expenditure: An Introductory Analysis with an Application to Turkey," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 3(1), pages 17-38, January.
- John Dagsvik & Boyan Jovanovic, 1995.
"Was the Great Depression a Low-Level Equilibrium?,"
NBER Working Papers
3726, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Flood, Robert P. & Garber, Peter M. & Kramer, Charles, 1996.
"Collapsing exchange rate regimes: Another linear example,"
Journal of International Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 41(3-4), pages 223-234, November.
- Robert P. Flood & Peter M. Garber & Charles Kramer, 1995. "Collapsing Exchange Rate Regimes: Another Linear Example," NBER Working Papers 5318, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Flood, Robert P. & Garber, Peter M., 1984. "Collapsing exchange-rate regimes : Some linear examples," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(1-2), pages 1-13, August.
- Jensen, Svend Erik Hougaard & Jensen, Lars Grue, 1995. "Debt, deficits and transition to EMU: A small country analysis," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 11(1), pages 3-25, March.
- Maurice Obstfeld, 1994. "The Logic of Currency Crises," NBER Working Papers 4640, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Obstfeld, Maurice, 1986.
"Rational and Self-fulfilling Balance-of-Payments Crises,"
American Economic Review,
American Economic Association, vol. 76(1), pages 72-81, March.
- Maurice Obstfeld, 1986. "Rational and Self-Fulfilling Balance-of-Payments Crises," NBER Working Papers 1486, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Tabellini, Guido & La Via, Vincenzo, 1989. "Money, Deficit and Public Debt in the United States," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 71(1), pages 15-25, February.
- Agenor, Pierre-Richard & Masson, Paul R, 1999. "Credibility, Reputation, and the Mexican Peso Crisis," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 31(1), pages 70-84, February.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Marianne Sensier).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.