Building Monetary Credibility in a Transforming Economy
AbstractThis paper uses unique survey data from Bulgaria, a transition economy with a currency board, to examine the following questions: 1) what is the level of confidence in the currency board over various time horizons, 2) how cognizant is the population of the restrictions a currency board imposes on monetary policy, and 3) whether those restrictions enhance agents' confidence in sustained financial stability. The results show that eliminating monetary policy enhances short-term credibility but does not have a significant effect of long-term credibility. Backing the local currency with foreign exchange reserves enhances both short-term and long-term credibility. However, the credibility-enhancing effect of the currency board is restricted to a group of agents who are more directly involved in the economy. The expectations of the remaining large majority of the population are based on political attitudes and various life experiences.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by International Center for Public Policy, Andrew Young School of Policy Studies, Georgia State University in its series International Center for Public Policy Working Paper Series, at AYSPS, GSU with number paper0212.
Length: 24 pages
Date of creation: 01 May 2000
Date of revision:
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://aysps.gsu.edu/isp/index.html
Bulgaria; transition economy;
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- John Williamson, 1995.
"What Role of Currency Boards?,"
Peterson Institute Press: All Books,
Peterson Institute for International Economics, number pa40.
- John Williamson, 1995. "What Role of Currency Boards?," Peterson Institute Press: Policy Analyses in International Economics, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number pa40, November.
- Atish R. Ghosh, 1998. "Currency Boards," IMF Working Papers 98/8, International Monetary Fund.
- Carlson, John A. & Valev, Neven T., 2001. "Credibility of a new monetary regime: The currency board in Bulgaria," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(3), pages 581-594, June.
- Obstfeld, Maurice, 1996.
"Destabilizing Effects of Exchange-Rate Escape Clauses,"
Department of Economics, Working Paper Series
qt15n3p5dt, Department of Economics, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
- Obstfeld, Maurice, 1997. "Destabilizing effects of exchange-rate escape clauses," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(1-2), pages 61-77, August.
- Maurice Obstfeld, 1991. "Destabilizing Effects of Exchange-Rate Escape Clauses," NBER Working Papers 3603, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Obstfeld, Maurice, 1991. "Destabilizing Effects of Exchange-Rate Escape Clauses," CEPR Discussion Papers 518, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Maurice Obstfeld., 1996. "Destabilizing Effects of Exchange-Rate Escape Clauses," Center for International and Development Economics Research (CIDER) Working Papers C96-075, University of California at Berkeley.
- Guillermo A. Calvo & Carlos A. Végh, 1994. "Inflation Stabilization And Nominal Anchors," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 12(2), pages 35-45, 04.
- Anne Marie Gulde, 1999. "The Role of the Currency Board in Bulgaria's Stabilization," IMF Policy Discussion Papers 99/3, International Monetary Fund.
- Yum K. Kwan & Francis T. Lui & Leonard K. Cheng, 2001. "Credibility of Hong Kong’s Currency Board: The Role of Institutional Arrangements," NBER Chapters, in: Regional and Global Capital Flows: Macroeconomic Causes and Consequences, NBER-EASE Volume 10, pages 233-259 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Thomas J. Sargent, 1981.
"The ends of four big inflations,"
158, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
- Stanley Fischer, 1986. "Contracts, Credibility, and Disinflation," NBER Working Papers 1339, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Richard W. Kopcke, 1999. "Currency boards: once and future monetary regimes?," New England Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, issue May, pages 21-37.
- Schwartz, Anna J., 1993. "Currency boards: their past, present, and possible future role," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 147-187, December.
- Calvo, Guillermo A, 1986. "Temporary Stabilization: Predetermined Exchange Rates," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 94(6), pages 1319-29, December.
- Sergio L. Schmukler & Luis Serven, 2002.
"Pricing Currency Risk: Facts and Puzzles from Currency Boards,"
NBER Working Papers
9047, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Schmukler, Sergio L. & Serven, Luis, 2002. "Pricing currency risk : facts and puzzles from currency boards," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2815, The World Bank.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Paul Benson).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.