IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ays/ispwps/paper0212.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Building Monetary Credibility in a Transforming Economy

Author

Abstract

This paper uses unique survey data from Bulgaria, a transition economy with a currency board, to examine the following questions: 1) what is the level of confidence in the currency board over various time horizons, 2) how cognizant is the population of the restrictions a currency board imposes on monetary policy, and 3) whether those restrictions enhance agents' confidence in sustained financial stability. The results show that eliminating monetary policy enhances short-term credibility but does not have a significant effect of long-term credibility. Backing the local currency with foreign exchange reserves enhances both short-term and long-term credibility. However, the credibility-enhancing effect of the currency board is restricted to a group of agents who are more directly involved in the economy. The expectations of the remaining large majority of the population are based on political attitudes and various life experiences.

Suggested Citation

  • Neven Valev, 2000. "Building Monetary Credibility in a Transforming Economy," International Center for Public Policy Working Paper Series, at AYSPS, GSU paper0212, International Center for Public Policy, Andrew Young School of Policy Studies, Georgia State University.
    • Handle: RePEc:ays:ispwps:paper0212
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://icepp.gsu.edu/files/2015/03/ispwp0212.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Thomas J. Sargent, 1982. "The Ends of Four Big Inflations," NBER Chapters, in: Inflation: Causes and Effects, pages 41-98, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Bruno, Michael, 1993. "Crisis, Stabilization, and Economic Reform: Therapy by Consensus," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198286639.
    3. John Williamson, 1995. "What Role of Currency Boards?," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number pa40.
    4. Schmukler, Sergio L. & Serven, Luis, 2002. "Pricing currency risk : facts and puzzles from currency boards," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2815, The World Bank.
    5. Yum K. Kwan & Francis T. Lui & Leonard K. Cheng, 2001. "Credibility of Hong Kong's Currency Board: The Role of Institutional Arrangements," NBER Chapters, in: Regional and Global Capital Flows: Macroeconomic Causes and Consequences, pages 233-259, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Calvo, Guillermo A, 1986. "Temporary Stabilization: Predetermined Exchange Rates," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 94(6), pages 1319-1329, December.
    7. Mr. Atish R. Ghosh, 1998. "Currency Boards: The Ultimate Fix?," IMF Working Papers 1998/008, International Monetary Fund.
    8. Obstfeld, Maurice, 1997. "Destabilizing effects of exchange-rate escape clauses," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(1-2), pages 61-77, August.
    9. Ms. Anne Marie Gulde, 1999. "The Role of the Currency Board in Bulgaria's Stabilization," IMF Policy Discussion Papers 1999/003, International Monetary Fund.
    10. Stanley Fischer, 1986. "Indexing, Inflation, and Economic Policy," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262561638, December.
    11. Richard W. Kopcke, 1999. "Currency boards: once and future monetary regimes?," New England Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, issue May, pages 21-37.
    12. Guillermo A. Calvo & Carlos A. Végh, 1994. "Inflation Stabilization And Nominal Anchors," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 12(2), pages 35-45, April.
    13. Schwartz, Anna J., 1993. "Currency boards: their past, present, and possible future role," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 147-187, December.
    14. Carlson, John A. & Valev, Neven T., 2001. "Credibility of a new monetary regime: The currency board in Bulgaria," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(3), pages 581-594, June.
    15. Stanley Fischer, 1984. "Contracts, Credibility, and Disinflation," NBER Working Papers 1339, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Neven Valev & John A. Carlson, 2002. "Tenuous Financial Stability," International Center for Public Policy Working Paper Series, at AYSPS, GSU paper0210, International Center for Public Policy, Andrew Young School of Policy Studies, Georgia State University.
    2. Neven Valev & John Carlson, 2007. "Beliefs about Exchange‐Rate Stability: Survey Evidence from the Currency Board in Bulgaria," Journal of Economic Policy Reform, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 10(2), pages 111-121.
    3. Carlson, John A. & Valev, Neven T., 2001. "Credibility of a new monetary regime: The currency board in Bulgaria," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(3), pages 581-594, June.
    4. De Gregorio, Jose & Guidotti, Pablo E & Vegh, Carlos A, 1998. "Inflation Stabilisation and the Consumption of Durable Goods," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 108(446), pages 105-131, January.
    5. Gedeon Shirley, 2010. "The Political Economy of Currency Boards: Case of Bosnia and Herzegovina," South East European Journal of Economics and Business, Sciendo, vol. 5(2), pages 7-20, November.
    6. Calvo, Guillermo A. & Vegh, Carlos A., 1999. "Inflation stabilization and bop crises in developing countries," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 24, pages 1531-1614, Elsevier.
    7. Ireland, Peter N, 1997. "Stopping Inflations, Big and Small," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 29(4), pages 759-775, November.
    8. Sergio Rebelo & Carlos A. Végh, 1995. "Real Effects of Exchange-Rate-Based Stabilization: An Analysis of Competing Theories," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1995, Volume 10, pages 125-188, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/6961 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Akhand Akhtar Hossain, 2009. "Central Banking and Monetary Policy in the Asia-Pacific," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 12777.
    11. Jose Veiga, Francisco, 1999. "What causes the failure of inflation stabilization plans?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 169-194, February.
    12. Neven T. Valev & John A. Carlson, 2007. "Beliefs about Exchange-Rate Stability: Survey Evidence from the Currency Board in Bulgaria," Journal of Economic Policy Reform, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(2), pages 111-121.
    13. Jérôme Sgard, 1999. "Crise financière, inflation et Currency Board en Bulgarie : les leçons d'une transition indisciplinée," Sciences Po publications info:hdl:2441/6961, Sciences Po.
    14. Stanley Fischer & Ratna Sahay & Carlos A. Végh, 2002. "Modern Hyper- and High Inflations," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 40(3), pages 837-880, September.
    15. Bruno, Michael & Easterly, William, 1998. "Inflation crises and long-run growth," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(1), pages 3-26, February.
    16. Alain Raybaut & Dominique Torre, 2004. "Unions monétaires, caisses d'émission et dollarisation : les fondements analytiques des systèmes de change « ultra-fixes »," Revue d'Économie Financière, Programme National Persée, vol. 75(2), pages 37-54.
    17. Jérôme Sgard, 1999. "Crise financière, inflation et Currency Board en Bulgarie : les leçons d'une transition indisciplinée," Post-Print hal-03585877, HAL.
    18. Sophie Chauvin, 2001. "Exit Options for Argentina with a Special Focus on Their Impact on External Trade," Working Papers 2001-07, CEPII research center.
    19. Miller, Jeffrey & Petranov, Stefan, 2001. "The Financial system in the Bulgarian economy," MPRA Paper 107704, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Oct 2001.
    20. Reinhart, Carmen & Vegh, Carlos, 1994. "Inflation stabilization in chronic inflation countries: The empirical evidence," MPRA Paper 13689, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    21. repec:zbw:bofitp:1999_009 is not listed on IDEAS
    22. Assaf Razin & Efraim Sadka, 1996. "Fiscal Balance During Inflation, Disinflation, and Immigration: Policy Lessons," IMF Working Papers 1996/033, International Monetary Fund.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Bulgaria; transition economy;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ays:ispwps:paper0212. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Paul Benson (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/ispgsus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.