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Contracts, Credibility, and Disinflation

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  • Stanley Fischer
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    Abstract

    Estimates of the cost of disinflation made before the recent reduction in the inflation rate varied widely. Estimates were made in terms of the sacrifice ratio -- the percentage points of GNP at an annual rate lost per percentage point reduction in the inflation rate. At one extreme it was argued thata resolute and credible monetary policy could reduce inflation virtually costlessly. At the other extreme were estimates that the sacrifice ratio exceeded 10. Costless immediate disinflation is not possible in an economy with long-term labor contracts. This paper sets out a simple contracting model of wage and output determination and uses it to calculate sacrifice ratios for a disinflation program, under the assumption that announced policy changes are immediately believed. Under this assumption disinflation with a structure of labor contracts like those of the United States would be less costly than typically estimated.The model is then modified to allow for the slow adjustment of expectations of policy to actual policy; sacrifice ratios then approach the ranges typically estimated. The sacrifice ratio for the current disinflation is calculated in the last section: the current disinflation was somewhat more rapid and less costly than previous estimates suggested. The calculated sacrifice ratio is consistent with the predictions of the simple contracting model.

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    File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w1339.pdf
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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 1339.

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    Date of creation: Apr 1986
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    Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:1339

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    References

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    1. Taylor, John B, 1980. "Aggregate Dynamics and Staggered Contracts," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 88(1), pages 1-23, February.
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    Cited by:
    1. Huh, Chan G. & Lansing, Kevin J., 2000. "Expectations, credibility, and disinflation in a small macroeconomic model," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 52(1-2), pages 51-86.
    2. Ireland, Peter N, 1997. "Stopping Inflations, Big and Small," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 29(4), pages 759-75, November.
    3. Fregert, Klas & Jonung, Lars, 2008. "Inflation Targeting Is a Success, So Far: 100 Years of Evidence from Swedish Wage Contracts," Economics Discussion Papers 2008-24, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
    4. Ball, Laurence, 1995. "Disinflation with imperfect credibility," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 5-23, February.
    5. Chan G. Huh & Kevin J. Lansing, 1998. "Federal Reserve credibility and inflation scares," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, pages 3-16.
    6. Neven Valev, 2000. "Building Monetary Credibility in a Transforming Economy," International Center for Public Policy Working Paper Series, at AYSPS, GSU paper0212, International Center for Public Policy, Andrew Young School of Policy Studies, Georgia State University.
    7. Ireland, Peter N., 1995. "Optimal disinflationary paths," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 19(8), pages 1429-1448, November.
    8. Sebastian Edwards, 1996. "A Tale of Two Crises: Chile and Mexico," NBER Working Papers 5794, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Diana N. Weymark, 2001. "Inflation Targeting, Announcements, and Imperfect Credibility," Vanderbilt University Department of Economics Working Papers 0124, Vanderbilt University Department of Economics, revised Apr 2002.
    10. Klas Fregert & Lars Jonung, 2007. "Policy rule evaluation by contract-makers: 100 years of wage contract length in Sweden," European Economy - Economic Papers 270, Directorate General Economic and Monetary Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    11. Fregert, Klas & Jonung, Lars, 1998. "Monetary Regimes And Endogenous Wage Contracts: Sweden 1908-1995," Working Papers 1998:3, Lund University, Department of Economics, revised 21 Apr 1999.

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