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Assessing Inflation Persistence: Micro Evidence on an Inflation Targeting Economy

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  • Jan Babecky
  • Fabrizio Coricelli
  • Roman Horvath

Abstract

The paper provides an empirical analysis of inflation persistence in an inflation targeting country, the Czech Republic, using 412 detailed product-level consumer price indexes underlying the consumer basket over the period from 1994:M1 to 2005:M12. Subject to various sensitivity tests, our results suggest that raw goods and non-durables, followed by services, display smaller inflation persistence than durables and processed goods. Inflation seems to be somewhat less persistent after the adoption of inflation targeting in 1998. There is also evidence for aggregation bias, that is, aggregate inflation is found to be more persistent than the underlying detailed components. Price dispersion, as a proxy for the degree of competition, is found to be negatively related to inflation persistence, suggesting that competition is not conducive to reducing persistence.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by The Center for Economic Research and Graduate Education - Economic Institute, Prague in its series CERGE-EI Working Papers with number wp353.

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Date of creation: Jun 2008
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Handle: RePEc:cer:papers:wp353

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Keywords: Inflation dynamics; persistence; inflation targeting.;

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Roman Horváth & Jakub Matějů, 2011. "How Are Inflation Targets Set?," Working Papers IES 2011/01, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, revised Jan 2011.
  2. Zorica Mladenović & Aleksandra Nojković, 2012. "Inflation Persistence in Central and Southeastern Europe: Evidence from Univariate and Structural Time Series Approaches," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 59(2), pages 235-266, May.
  3. Konstantin Belyaev & Aelita Belyaeva & Tomas Konecny & Jakub Seidler & Martin Vojtek, 2012. "Macroeconomic Factors as Drivers of LGD Prediction: Empirical Evidence from the Czech Republic," Working Papers 2012/12, Czech National Bank, Research Department.

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