This file is part of IDEAS, which uses RePEc data


[ Papers | Articles | Software | Books | Chapters | Authors | Institutions | JEL Classification | NEP reports | Search | New papers by email | Author registration | Rankings | Volunteers | FAQ | Blog | Help! ]

Inflation Targeting Is a Success, So Far: 100 Years of Evidence from Swedish Wage Contracts

Author info | Abstract | Publisher info | Download info | Related research | Statistics
Author Info
Fregert, Klas
Jonung, Lars

Additional information is available for the following registered author(s):

Abstract

Inflation targeting was adopted by several countries, including Sweden, in the 1990s. We evaluate the Swedish inflation targeting regime since 1995 using a novel approach based on a unique data set on the characteristics of collective wage agreements between 1908 and 2008. First, we establish that the length of wage contracts decreases in response to an increase in ?macroeconomic uncertainty? across policy regimes. Second, using contract length as the assessment criteria for regime performance, we find that the inflation targeting regime of 1995?2008 stands out as an exceptionally stable policy regime as judged by the willingness of wage contract-makers to repeatedly commit to three-year non-indexed wage agreements. In addition, inflation targeting gained instant credibility in the sense that the labor market organizations entered long-term wage agreements at the same time as this new regime was announced. Inflation targeting has thus reduced macroeconomic uncertainty compared to previous regimes adopted in Sweden during the 20th century. Our approach to evaluate inflation targeting is different from the traditional one commonly based on cross-section samples comparing inflation outcomes. Instead we focus on the actual decisions of private-sector wage setters under different monetary regimes. Judging from their behavior across a century of observations, inflation targeting in Sweden is a success ? at least so far.

Download Info
To download:

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. Information about this may be contained in the File-Format links below. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.economics-ejournal.org/economics/discussionpapers/2008-24
File Format: application/pdf
File Function:
Download Restriction: no

Publisher Info
Paper provided by Kiel Institute for the World Economy in its series Economics Discussion Papers with number 2008-24.

Download reference. The following formats are available: HTML (with abstract), plain text (with abstract), BibTeX, RIS (EndNote, RefMan, ProCite), ReDIF
Length:
Date of creation: 2008
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:zbw:ifwedp:7335

Contact details of provider:
Postal: D�sternbrooker Weg 120, D-24105 Kiel
Phone: +49 431 8814-1
Fax: +49 431 8814528
Email:
Web page: http://www.economics-ejournal.org/
More information through EDIRC

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its listing, contact: (ZBW - German National Library for Economics).

Related research
Keywords: Inflation targeting; policy regime; contract length; wage indexation; Lucas critique; Sweden; credibility;

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:
E42 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Monetary Sytsems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System
E30 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
E65 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Studies of Particular Policy Episodes

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Murphy, Kevin J., 2000. "What effect does uncertainty have on the length of labor contracts?," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 7(2), pages 181-201, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Klepper, Steven & Leamer, Edward E, 1984. "Consistent Sets of Estimates for Regressions with Errors in All Variables," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 52(1), pages 163-83, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Horn, Henrik & Persson, Torsten, 1988. "Exchange rate policy, wage formation and credibility," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 32(8), pages 1621-1636, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Groth, Charlotta & Johansson, Asa, 2004. "Bargaining structure and nominal wage flexibility," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 48(6), pages 1349-1365, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  5. Jonung, Lars, 1979. "Knut wicksell's norm of price stabilization and Swedish monetary policy in the 1930's," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(4), pages 459-496, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Robert Rich & Joseph Tracy, 2000. "Uncertainty and Labor Contract Durations," NBER Working Papers 7731, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  7. Rose, Andrew & Mihov, Ilian, 2008. "Is Old Money Better than New? Duration and Monetary Regimes," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal, Kiel Institute for the World Economy, vol. 2(13), pages 1-24. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  8. Christofides, Louis N. & Peng, Chen, 2006. "Contract duration and indexation in a period of real and nominal uncertainty," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(1), pages 61-86, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  9. Berg, Claes & Jonung, Lars, 1999. "Pioneering price level targeting: The Swedish experience 1931-1937," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(3), pages 525-551, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  10. Bordo, Michael D. & Schwartz, Anna J., 1999. "Monetary policy regimes and economic performance: The historical record," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 3, pages 149-234 Elsevier. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  11. Taylor, John B, 1980. "Aggregate Dynamics and Staggered Contracts," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 88(1), pages 1-23, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Lars Calmfors & Asa Johansson, 2006. "Nominal Wage Flexibility, Wage Indexation and Monetary Union," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 116(508), pages 283-308, 01. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Benjamin M. Friedman, 2004. "Why the Federal Reserve Should Not Adopt Inflation Targeting," International Finance, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 7(1), pages 129-136, 03. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Steven Klepper & Edward E. Leamer, 1982. "Consistent Sets of Estimates," UCLA Economics Working Papers 282, UCLA Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  15. Fethke, Gary C & Policano, Andrew J, 1981. "Cooperative Responses by Public and Private Agents to Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbances," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 48(190), pages 155-71, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  16. Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1980. "Two Illustrations of the Quantity Theory of Money," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 70(5), pages 1005-14, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  17. McCallum, John, 1983. "Stabilization Policy and Endogenous Wage Stickiness," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 73(3), pages 414-19, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  18. Blanchard, Olivier Jean, 1979. "Wage Indexing Rules and the Behavior of the Economy," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 87(4), pages 798-815, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  19. Lin, Shu & Ye, Haichun, 2007. "Does inflation targeting really make a difference? Evaluating the treatment effect of inflation targeting in seven industrial countries," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(8), pages 2521-2533, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  20. Lennart Erixon, 2008. "The Swedish third way: an assessment of the performance and validity of the Rehn--Meidner model," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 32(3), pages 367-393, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  21. Stanley Fischer, 1986. "Contracts, Credibility, and Disinflation," NBER Working Papers 1339, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Full references

Statistics
Access and download statistics

Did you know? RePEc also has a blog.

This page was last updated on 2009-11-13.


This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Department of Economics, College of Liberal Arts and Sciences, University of Connecticut using RePEc data on a server sponsored by the Society for Economic Dynamics.