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Monetary Policy, Imperfect Information and the Expectations Channel

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  • Paul Hubert
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    Abstract

    Cette thèse explore les implications de l’hypothèse d’information imparfaite pour la politique monétaire. Nous considérons la banque centrale comme le point d’ancrage des anticipations privées non plus grâce à son engagement envers une faible inflation, mais grâce à sa compétence : sa capacité à correctement prévoir les futurs états de l’économie. L’objectif de cette analyse est de montrer que la compétence permet d’influencer les anticipations privées et que cette influence permet de relâcher les contraintes pesant sur la politique monétaire pour atteindre ses objectifs macroéconomiques. Le premier chapitre procède à une revue empirique de la littérature traitant de la performance de prévision de la Réserve Fédérale. Le deuxième chapitre se concentre sur des banques centrales qui publient leurs prévisions en temps réel, afin de mettre en valeur le canal des anticipations de la politique monétaire et la question de la crédibilité via le lien entre performance de prévision et influence des banques centrales. Nous proposons de définir la crédibilité endogène comme la capacité d’influence provenant de meilleures prévisions, en opposition avec la crédibilité exogène pour laquelle les banques centrales n’auraient pas besoin de meilleure prévision pour être influentes. Le troisième chapitre examine les implications théoriques de l’influence endogène pour les décisions de politique monétaire, à travers un modèle Néo-Keynésien avec anticipations non-rationnelles. Enfin, le quatrième chapitre évalue les préférences monétaires de trois banques centrales qui ont adopté le ciblage d’inflation et communiquent leur prévisions en temps réel.

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    Length: 118 pages
    Date of creation: Nov 2010
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    Handle: RePEc:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/f4rshpf3v1umfa09lat09b1bg

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    Keywords: Macroéconomie; influence; politique monétaire; information; anticipations; crédibilité;

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