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Comparing the Point Predictions and Subjective Probability Distributions of Professional Forecasters Author info | Abstract | Publisher info | Download info | Related research | Statistics Engelberg, Joseph
Manski, Charles F.
Williams, Jared
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We use data from the Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) to compare point predictions of gross domestic product (GDP) growth and inflation with the subjective probability distributions held by forecasters. We find that most SPF point predictions are quite close to the central tendencies of forecasters subjective distributions tend to be asymmetric, with SPF forecasters tending to report point predictions that give a more favorable view of the economy than do their subjective means/medians/modes.
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Article provided by American Statistical Association in its journal Journal of Business and Economic Statistics .
Volume (Year): 27 (2009)
Issue (Month): ()
Pages: 30-41
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Handle: RePEc:bes:jnlbes:v:27:y:2009:p:30-41Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.amstat.org/publications/jbes/index.cfm?fuseaction=main
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references Cited by : (explanations , Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile , click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)
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Clements, Michael P., 2008.
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