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Comparing the Point Predictions and Subjective Probability Distributions of Professional Forecasters

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  • Engelberg, Joseph
  • Manski, Charles F.
  • Williams, Jared

Abstract

We use data from the Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) to compare point predictions of gross domestic product (GDP) growth and inflation with the subjective probability distributions held by forecasters. We find that most SPF point predictions are quite close to the central tendencies of forecasters subjective distributions tend to be asymmetric, with SPF forecasters tending to report point predictions that give a more favorable view of the economy than do their subjective means/medians/modes.

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File URL: http://pubs.amstat.org/doi/abs/10.1198/jbes.2009.0003
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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by American Statistical Association in its journal Journal of Business and Economic Statistics.

Volume (Year): 27 (2009)
Issue (Month): ()
Pages: 30-41

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Handle: RePEc:bes:jnlbes:v:27:y:2009:p:30-41

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  1. Giordani, Paolo & Söderlind, Paul, 2002. "Is there Evidence of Pessimism and Doubt in Subjective Distributions? A Comment on Abel," Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 519, Stockholm School of Economics, revised 15 Aug 2003.
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  11. Lahiri, Kajal & Teigland, Christie & Zaporowski, Mark, 1988. "Interest Rates and the Subjective Probability Distribution of Inflation Forecasts," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 20(2), pages 233-48, May.
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  15. repec:att:wimass:8905 is not listed on IDEAS
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