This file is part of IDEAS, which uses RePEc data


[ Papers | Articles | Software | Books | Chapters | Authors | Institutions | JEL Classification | NEP reports | Search | New papers by email | Author registration | Rankings | Volunteers | FAQ | Blog | Help! ]

The Relation Between Macroeconomic Uncertainty And The Expected Performance Of the Economy

Author info | Abstract | Publisher info | Download info | Related research | Statistics
Author Info
Jean Sepulveda-Umanzor

Additional information is available for the following registered author(s):

Abstract

By using data from surveys of expectations, it is shown that macroeconomic uncertainty, measured by the standard deviation of the expected output growth, the expected unemployment rate, and the expected inflation rate, is negatively related to the expected performance of the economy, proxied by the expected growth rate of output. That is, forward-looking agents are more uncertain about the future development of output, unemployment, and inflation when the growth rate of output is expected to fall, and they are less uncertain when this growth rate is expected to increase. The findings indicate that macroeconomic polices would have asymmetric effects on output depending upon how economic agents expect the economy to perform in the near future

Download Info
To download:

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. Information about this may be contained in the File-Format links below. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://repec.org/esLATM04/up.10633.1082126441.pdf
File Format: application/pdf
File Function:
Download Restriction: no

Publisher Info
Paper provided by Econometric Society in its series Econometric Society 2004 Latin American Meetings with number 304.

Download reference. The following formats are available: HTML (with abstract), plain text (with abstract), BibTeX, RIS (EndNote, RefMan, ProCite), ReDIF
Length:
Date of creation: 11 Aug 2004
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:ecm:latm04:304

Contact details of provider:
Phone: 1 212 998 3820
Fax: 1 212 995 4487
Email:
Web page: http://www.econometricsociety.org/pastmeetings.asp
More information through EDIRC

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its listing, contact: (Christopher F. Baum).

Related research
Keywords: Macroeconomic uncertainty; expectations; expected macroeconomic performance;

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:
D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
E39 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Other
E66 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General Outlook and Conditions

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Victor Zarnowitz & Louis A. Lambros, 1987. "Consensus and Uncertainty in Economic Prediction," NBER Working Papers 1171, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Cover, James Peery, 1992. "Asymmetric Effects of Positive and Negative Money-Supply Shocks," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 107(4), pages 1261-82, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Leahy, John V & Whited, Toni M, 1996. "The Effect of Uncertainty on Investment: Some Stylized Facts," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 28(1), pages 64-83, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  4. N. Gregory Mankiw & Ricardo Reis & Justin Wolfers, 2003. "Disagreement about Inflation Expectations," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 2011, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Dean Croushore, 1997. "The Livingston Survey: still useful after all these years," Business Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, issue Mar, pages 15-27. [Downloadable!]
  6. Lahiri, Kajal & Teigland, Christie & Zaporowski, Mark, 1988. "Interest Rates and the Subjective Probability Distribution of Inflation Forecasts," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 20(2), pages 233-48, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Zarnowitz, Victor & Lambros, Louis A, 1987. "Consensus and Uncertainty in Economic Prediction," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 95(3), pages 591-621, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Dean Croushore, 1993. "Introducing: the survey of professional forecasters," Business Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, issue Nov, pages 3-15. [Downloadable!]
  9. Giordani, Paolo & Soderlind, Paul, 2003. "Inflation forecast uncertainty," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 47(6), pages 1037-1059, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  10. Logue, Dennis E & Willett, Thomas D, 1976. "A Note on the Relation between the Rate and Variability of Inflation," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 43(17), pages 151-58, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Bomberger, William A, 1996. "Disagreement as a Measure of Uncertainty," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 28(3), pages 381-92, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Mario Quagliariello, 2007. "Macroeconomic uncertainty and banks' lending decisions: The case of Italy," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 615, Bank of Italy, Economic Research Department. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
Statistics
Access and download statistics

Did you know? You may want to explore EconPapers, which displays the same data as IDEAS in a different way.

This page was last updated on 2009-12-2.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Department of Economics, College of Liberal Arts and Sciences, University of Connecticut using RePEc data on a server sponsored by the Society for Economic Dynamics.