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Term Premia and Inflation Uncertainty: Empirical Evidence from an International Panel Dataset

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  • Jonathan H. Wright
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    Abstract

    This paper provides cross-country empirical evidence on term premia. I construct a panel of zero-coupon nominal government bond yields spanning ten industrialized countries and nearly two decades. I hence compute forward rates and use two different methods to decompose these forward rates into expected future short-term interest rates and term premiums. The first method uses an affine term structure model with macroeconomic variables as unspanned risk factors; the second method uses surveys. I find that term premiums declined internationally over the sample period, especially in countries that apparently reduced inflation uncertainty by making substantial changes in their monetary policy frameworks. (JEL E13, E43, E52, G12, H63)

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by American Economic Association in its journal American Economic Review.

    Volume (Year): 101 (2011)
    Issue (Month): 4 (June)
    Pages: 1514-34

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    Handle: RePEc:aea:aecrev:v:101:y:2011:i:4:p:1514-34

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    1. Diebold, Francis X. & Li, Canlin & Yue, Vivian Z., 2008. "Global yield curve dynamics and interactions: A dynamic Nelson-Siegel approach," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 146(2), pages 351-363, October.
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    13. Refet S. Gürkaynak & Brian Sack & Eric Swanson, 2005. "The Sensitivity of Long-Term Interest Rates to Economic News: Evidence and Implications for Macroeconomic Models," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(1), pages 425-436, March.
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    15. Pierre Collin-Dufresne & Robert S. Goldstein, 2002. "Do Bonds Span the Fixed Income Markets? Theory and Evidence for Unspanned Stochastic Volatility," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(4), pages 1685-1730, 08.
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    Cited by:
    1. Gilchrist, Simon & Lopez-Salido, J. David & Zakrajsek, Egon, 2014. "Monetary Policy and Real Borrowing Costs at the Zero Lower Bound," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2014-39, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    2. Bai, Jushan & Wang, Peng, 2012. "Identification and estimation of dynamic factor models," MPRA Paper 38434, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Ravi Bansal & Ivan Shaliastovich, 2012. "A Long-Run Risks Explanation of Predictability Puzzles in Bond and Currency Markets," NBER Working Papers 18357, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Ulrich, Maxim, 2013. "Inflation ambiguity and the term structure of U.S. Government bonds," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(2), pages 295-309.
    5. Junko Koeda, 2012. "Endogenous Monetary Policy Shifts and the Term Structure: Evidence from Japanese Government Bond Yields," CARF F-Series CARF-F-303, Center for Advanced Research in Finance, Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo, revised Apr 2013.
    6. Galvao, Ana Beatriz & Costa, Sonia, 2013. "Does the euro area forward rate provide accurate forecasts of the short rate?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 131-141.
    7. Ralph S.J. Koijen & Tobias J. Moskowitz & Lasse Heje Pedersen & Evert B. Vrugt, 2013. "Carry," NBER Working Papers 19325, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Yin, Weiwei & Li, Junye, 2014. "Macroeconomic fundamentals and the exchange rate dynamics: A no-arbitrage macro-finance approach," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 46-64.
    9. Josh Stillwagon, 2014. "Subjective Term Premia, Consumer Sentiment, and the Zero Lower Bound," Working Papers 1401, Trinity College, Department of Economics.
    10. Adrian, Tobias & Crump, Richard K. & Moench, Emanuel, 2013. "Pricing the term structure with linear regressions," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 110(1), pages 110-138.
    11. Dahlquist, Magnus & Hasseltoft, Henrik, 2013. "International Bond Risk Premia," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(1), pages 17-32.

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