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The links between inflation and inflation uncertainty at the longer horizon

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  • Tsyplakov, Alexander

Abstract

In this paper I examine the Okun–Friedman hypothesis of the link between inflation and inflation uncertainty using historical international data on the monthly CPI. An indicator of inflation uncertainty at the two-years-ahead horizon is derived from a time-series model of inflation with time-varying parameters by means of Monte Carlo simulations. This indicator is compared to other uncertainty measures, with the short forecast horizon and based on simpler GARCH-type models. The analysis convincingly demonstrates that both the longer horizon and changing parameters are important for the regularity. The evidence obtained strongly supports the Okun–Friedman hypothesis both in the time dimension for most countries and across countries.

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Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 26908.

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Date of creation: 22 Nov 2010
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Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:26908

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Keywords: inflation uncertainty; inflation forecasting; Okun–Friedman hypothesis; nonlinear state space models; scoring rules;

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